Even though the Chargers have seen limited success with Justin Herbert under center, he is still considered to be one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL. Some may disagree with this sentiment, but many people, including the Chargers' front office, believe in his talent. In fact, the Chargers believed in his talent so much that they signed him to a $263 million contract last summer.
Herbert's contract will keep him in Los Angeles through 2029, ensuring he'll be the face of the franchise until he's 31. While Herbert's presence under center has been consistent, just about everything else in Los Angeles is changing.
Brandon Staley (former head coach) and Kellen Moore (former offensive coordinator) have been replaced by Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman to lead the team. The Chargers also underwent significant changes to the offensive roster. Franchise cornerstones Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, and Mike Williams are all with new organizations this season.
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On top of the turnover within the franchise, Herbert is dealing with personal adversity this offseason. Herbert is no stranger to playing through pain, and he will likely have to do so once again to open the year. He was diagnosed with plantar fasciitis in his right foot, a rather painful ailment.
With everything going on in Los Angeles this offseason, it is fair to be skeptical of what Herbert can contribute to fantasy rosters this year. Let's take a closer look at the factors impacting Herbert's fantasy outlook this season.
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Justin Herbert Fantasy Outlook: What is his fantasy value following offensive changes and a foot injury?
Justin Herbert injury update
Herbert's injury has been well-documented by the media, but the big question is whether it will impact him in the regular season. The short answer is that it shouldn't.
Immediately following the injury on July 31, the Chargers shared that they expect to have their franchise QB back for Week 1. Every development in the past three weeks has corroborated that expectation. Most recently, Herbert returned to practice and Harbaugh was quoted saying, "[Herbert] looked great with a capital G."
Given his return to the practice field and vote of confidence from his head coach, we can expect to see the same old Herbert on the field in Week 1. He may be playing through some discomfort, but he will be on the field and should not be significantly limited by the injury.
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Impact of the turnover in Los Angeles
As previously mentioned, the Chargers cleaned house this offseason. Herbert will undoubtedly be impacted by the changes made to both the roster and coaching staff. Losing the sure-handed Keenan Allen and contested-catch specialist Mike Williams is painful. The Chargers did attempt to remedy the situation by drafting Ladd McConkey in Round 2 of the NFL Draft, but asking him to fill the shoes of two quality veterans is an impossible task.
The most significant change in Los Angeles will revolve around their offensive philosophy. Since entering the league in 2016, Herbert has been part of an incredibly pass-heavy offense. Across 62 starts, Herbert has averaged 39.02 attempts per game, the highest mark of any active quarterback.
This is set to change in 2024. In every year of Greg Roman's career as an offensive coordinator, his offense has ranked top-10 in total carries and total rushing yardage. And it's not just Roman who pounds the rock; Harbaugh has made it abundantly clear that they will prioritize the ground game through quotes such as, "We view offensive linemen as weapons" after he opted to select OT Joe Alt over WR Malik Nabers with the 5th overall pick in this year's draft. Herbert should be prepared to hand the ball off more times this year than he ever has.
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Justin Herbert's overall fantasy outlook
It appears that drafters are well aware of the vastly different offensive environment in Los Angeles. Herbert's ADP sees him come off draft boards in Round 11 as the QB17. This is a significant step back for a quarterback who has an overall QB2 season under his belt.
While there's room to debate that Herbert should be valued at a higher level within the quarterback market, his overall price as a fantasy backup is fair. Given the depletion of his arsenal and coaching changes, people should not draft Herbert with the thought that he'll be a top-12 option.
This doesn't mean he is completely irrelevant in fantasy football this year. He can be drafted alongside one of the "risky" or fringe QB1s. If you grab someone like Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, or Brock Purdy as your starter, Herbert makes for a phenomenal insurance policy. And Herbert would also make a very solid second QB in Superflex leagues.
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