The American Express golf betting guide: Our PGA pro's best bets and top props from the Desert Classic

The American Express: Customer golf

The PGA TOUR’s season started with a +20000 long shot winner in a limited field, stacked with a full complement of elite players. On Sunday at the Sony Open, the TOUR doubled down and gave us a +40000 long shot winner. What's happening to start the 2024 FedEx Cup season?

Chris Kirk — who won the Sentry — and Grayson Murray — who emerged victorious at the Sony Open — are less than household names, yet they are your first two winners on TOUR. Now we head to The American Express in La Quinta, California, where the last five winners' average pre-tournament odds were +21500! We have a wild west shoot-out this week in Palm Desert, so let’s break it down from a betting perspective.

JT Poston fired a tournament-low 61 on Sunday to finish sixth and cover our top 20 bet. Looking for more winning bets? Subscribe to the Read The Line newsletter (it’s free!) and follow us on Twitter!

A field of 156 players will play the first three rounds on three different courses competing for $8.4 million. Each competitor will also be paired with an amateur for the pro-am aspect of this event. Following 54 holes, there will be a traditional cut to the top 65 and ties for the final round played by just the professionals. Those who make it to Sunday will have a chance to win $1.5 million and 500 FedEx Cup points. I mention the points because they've become incredibly valuable on the PGA TOUR.

The difference between these $8 million events and the $20 million signature tournaments is life-changing. That’s not hyperbole — the average TOUR player getting into these limited-field, elite-purse events can change the trajectory of one's career. Look at Wyndham Clark or Kurt Kitayama — their signature wins in 2023 have them positioned inside the elite stratosphere of the TOUR.

The tournament venues of this event are not the most difficult tests on the PGA TOUR. They are some of the shortest these men will play all season. Over the course of the first three days this week, the field will rotate between La Quinta Country Club, the Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West, and the Stadium Course at PGA West. They will use the Stadium course for the final round on Sunday.

La Quinta CC is a par-72 layout covering 7,060 yards. It boasts the smallest targets, with an average green size of 4,773 square feet. The course has 82 bunkers and seven holes where water comes into play. It was designed by Lawrence Hughes in 1959, and the greens are over-seeded with Poa Trivialis for the winter season. The Nicklaus Tournament Course is 7,147 yards and plays to a par-72. It has much larger greens at 7,000 square feet, and those are also over-seeded with Poa. Nicklaus’s 1987 design features 90-plus bunkers and five holes where water comes into play.

The final test is also the best one. Pete Dye’s Stadium Course at PGA West opened in 1986. The par-72 scorecard displays 7,187 yards winding through 90 outrageous bunkers and seven holes present challenging water hazards. The average green size is 5,000 square feet, making it the seventh-smallest set of greens on the PGA TOUR. They also have a Poa over-seed, and look like brilliant green velvet carpets dotting the desert landscape.

The TOUR has been coming to the desert for some time, and PGA West has been the host venue for decades. It hasn’t rained in 25 days in Palm Springs. That’s exactly why they come here. We do see a little chance of some weather on Sunday, but I’ll be surprised if it affects these guys at all. Each of the courses are in perfect condition and prepared for scoring. These greens are pure and so are the players. What will it take to win this annual birdie-fest? Keep reading to find out.

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering The American Express winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

The American Express: Odds

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

The American Express: Straight and narrow

The average winning score over the past 10 years at The American Express is 24 under par. Even with three different golf courses over four days, the TOUR’s best cannot be slowed down. Some of the very best are here, as 22 of the top 50 in the OWGR are competing this week. Their path to winning goes through those greens. Our winner will need 30 (or more) birdies to win. Considering the average length of all three courses, wedge acumen, and a very hot putter start the skill set.

Sixteen of the 30 par-4s are under 425 yards. Creating opportunities with a scoring club is what they require. Proximity to the hole will lead to shorter birdie chances. These are resort courses — the fairways are generous and the greens are relatively flat. Getting those approaches close will give players a chance to contend. It’s easy to say par-5 scoring is a must, but the reality is winners must score from everywhere. Players need to average seven-plus birdies per round.

Forty-two of the 54 holes have a birdie rate over 15 percent. With 156 players in the field, that’s a minimum of 25 guys birdieing those holes every day. For the weekend golfer, it's hard to imagine such a level of consistent skill, but it happens. The top 10 last year averaged 30 birdies over four rounds. What’s really unique about this tournament is the small margin of success. It literally comes down to one putt or holed-out chip.

Over the past five years, the winner has gained an average of five strokes tee-to-green on the field. Most weekly winners gain eight, nine, 10-plus strokes on the rest. These courses do not separate the players. If you thought the last two weeks were close, wait until you see how exciting this weekend should be. Handicapping a field this tight is difficult. My biggest motivation for traveling to cover the players on-site is to prepare for weeks just like this. Getting to know their games is important. Understanding how they fit the format this week has more to do with demeanor than divot patterns.

I’m excited to see the entire field compete this week. Our best bets reflect years of studying swings and players on the PGA TOUR. We can win wild weeks like this because our process is proven. Enjoy the golf and our betting card.

The American Express: Desert delivery

Best bet to win: JT Poston (+3300)

In two starts this year, Poston has finished fifth and sixth in Hawaii. The premiere putter has really become a solid ball-striker to complement his flat-stick skill. Poston has gained on approach in eight of his last nine starts. The two-time PGA TOUR winner is playing better golf now than during those wins. Over his last 10 tournaments, JT is gaining an average of six strokes on the field. His recent play shows he’s confident and can get super low.

The American Express: Im the right place

To finish in the top 10: Sungjae Im (+200)

Something about target golf in the desert sits well with Sungjae Im. Fresh off a 34-birdie performance at the Sentry two weeks ago, Im is back for more low scoring. He’s won in the Vegas desert before and has five straight top-20 finishes here at the American Express.

The American Express: Best Bet of the Week!

To finish in the top 20: Eric Cole (+150)

Eric Cole has five straight top-20 finishes. The PGA TOUR leader in birdies last year shows no signs of holding back in 2024. The well-rounded Rookie of the Year has been backing up his initial campaign with continued great play.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by five-time award-winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 26 outright wins and covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter