CJ Cup Byron Nelson expert picks and predictions: Our PGA Pro’s best bets for 2024 TOUR Event

In this betting preview:

• Tournament format breakdown
• Expert picks and predictions
• BetMGM odds to win
• Betting trends from past winners
• Course overview

Last year, 11 players in the top 50 of the OWGR competed in the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. Well Dallas, I've got some bad news for you: in the 2024 edition, only five players in the top 40 of the world rankings are in the 156-man field. But we don't need a star-studded event to win bets — we have identified plenty of betting value to help you find an edge this weekend.

What looks like last year's Honda Classic, the Byron Nelson is in a bad spot on the schedule. In the next seven weeks following the CJ Cup, there are three signature events and two major championships. That's a strong run of important events — and unless you live around the corner from TPC Craig Ranch, the Byron Nelson got bumped from your calendar.

The top 65 and ties in this full-field event get to compete over the weekend for $9.5 million. The Byron Nelson host since 2021 has been TPC Craig Ranch located in McKinney. Part of the TOUR's TPC network, this layout lacks drawing power. The build of the 2024 schedule has created these mandatory breaks by grouping signature tournaments alongside major championships.

Over the next two weeks, we will go from Quail Hollow to Valhalla. In-between, there are opportunities for the PGA TOUR's middle tier, and that's where most of my attention lies in Texas. The tournament betting favorite, Jordan Spieth, has missed the cut in three of his last five starts including the Masters.

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CJ Cup Byron Nelson expert picks and predictions

Best bet to win: Mark Hubbard (+5500 on BetMGM)

On Monday, Hubbard’s odds to win the CJ Cup were right around 70-to-1. Since that time, they have dropped to +6000 and continue to get shorter.

Sharp players are taking Hubbard because of his ability to score. He took third place last week at the Zurich Classic, and has now made all 11 cuts he has faced in 2024. Since January, he has also shot up over 30 OWGR places.

The trend is our friend with “Homeless Hubbs,” as he prepares to collect a serious downpayment with his first PGA TOUR win this week in Dallas.

Best head-to-head prop: Thomas Detry over Adam Schenk (+105 on DraftKings)

Schenk has never seemed comfortable at TPC Craig Ranch. His strokes gained numbers are not positive in three trips, and his last start in Hilton Head was shaky as well.

Meanwhile, Detry is wielding a very hot putter. He’s gained over four strokes (on average) against the field in his past five starts. I love the hot putter and recent ball-striking of Detry over Schenk.

*BET OF THE WEEK*
Matti Schmid to finish in the top 40 (+160 on FanDuel)

We're looking for the best sub-par scorers in the field, and Schmid is one of those players. He’s ranked first in BoB% and second in birdies gained.

Schmid’s scoring has led to an 11th place finish at Corales and a 10th at Puerto Rico in March. That's two very good comp results for a preview of what’s possible at TPC Craig Ranch.

CJ Cup Byron Nelson live odds to win

Odds (shorter than +10000) courtesy of BetMGM.

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CJ Cup Byron Nelson past winners, betting trends

There's no better name for TPC Craig Ranch than the amazing nickname of the two-time winner of the Byron Nelson in back-to-back years (2021-2022): TPC LEE!

Not only did Lee win in two straight years, but both times he entered with triple-digit pre-tournament odds. Seems like whatever KH Lee can do on a golf course matches life on Craig Ranch.

Upon first inspection, we see length on the scorecard. Wet conditions will only increase overall distance. Soft conditions will also help two very important factors: hitting fairways and GIRs.

• Players hit more than the TOUR average of fairways and well more than the GIRs from week to week. The scoring average is historically a couple strokes under par, which is quite low. Remember winning requires a six under par average per round. 
   
• Two years ago, tournament officials changed the twelfth hole from a par 5 to a par 4. This increased the importance of par 4 scoring, and par 5 scoring. With just three par 5s left, the field must take advantage on these holes. I dug deep into the skill set for scoring on the 5s. Length and pitching are the keys and our team of outrights scores at will on these holes. 
   
  • Eleven of the top 15 in par 5 scoring finished in the top 11 of the leaderboard last year. 
  • Seven of the top 12 finishers were in the top 10 for par 5 scoring in 2022.
  • Seven of the top 11 were also inside the top 10 for par 5 scoring in 2021. 

Scoring in general is key and BoB%, birdies gained, opportunities gained, and simply hitting as many GIRs as possible leads to 25+ sub-par scores. At times, I make it sound easy on paper, but going that low for four straight days doesn't just happen.

Our outrights have been trending. Accumulating top 10s and 20s displays solid form — and with so many elite events lately, many of the best in the middle tier have quietly played very well lately. I also believe so many long-shot wins early in the season keep these guys focused when they are playing well. They see others like them winning and gain momentum for their own trophy runs.

Over one-third of the approach shots at TPC Craig Ranch travel over 200 yards. If Tiger taught us anything over 20+ years of competing (and winning), it is that long-iron play can really separate you from your peers. The two winners at Craig Ranch over the past three years gained an average of six strokes on approach. That's two shots more than with the putter, which is the second-largest gain. Who can just continue to knock down flagsticks and make putts? There's 35 acres of fairway grass here, so I'm less concerned with hitting fairways than I am with possessing an elite iron game.

Seven par-4s over 450 yards catch my attention. There's a specific style player who scores on long par-4s. They are hand-picked below. Add those seven holes to the three par-5s, and now we have 10 holes per round to differentiate yourself with. Remember, six under par per day!

Twelve holes have a birdie rate over 15 percent, and five of them have a birdie rate over 35 percent! Each player will be attacking these holes aggressively. I'm featuring players who tend to go for the green in two on par-5s no matter what. I call them calculated bombers — but they are aggressive, and much like winning at PGA West, TPC Deere Run, and TPC Scottsdale, they enjoy playing this style of golf.

Grinders need not apply this week. This is Monday scramble style scoring, so make sure your pencil has a fresh eraser. No matter how low you go, with soft conditions you will probably need to go lower. Each of our outrights has brilliant birdie potential and this level of field will keep them comfortable. Get ready for classic birdiefest as we creep one week closer to Kentucky and our next major showdown.

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CJ Cup Byron Nelson: TPC Craig Ranch breakdown

There's a very good opportunity in McKinney to make some money. TPC Craig Ranch is a par-71 design measuring 7,414 yards. Another long course is only going to get longer this week. Similar to a year ago, the weather looks very wet in Dallas. The region has already received 6.5 inches of rain over the last 10 days. Couple that with a forecast calling for another inch on Thursday. Rain is in the forecast for all four tournament days. Get ready to dodge some clouds as the TOUR tries to squeeze this one in on a regular schedule.

The Ranch is pretty mundane when it comes to course design. When your comp courses are TPC Deere Run and Detroit Golf Club we aren’t going to be hosting major championships any time soon. Here's a large part of the problem for getting a better field. How would this venue ever prepare you for next week in Charlotte or the following in Louisville? Greens that average 6,778 sq/ft are easy to hit. Putting on Bentgrass is helpful, but only four holes have a bogey rate over 15%. There just isn't enough of a challenge to separate the best players. We do have several long par 4s, but in many cases last year the TOUR moved tees up.

The average winning score after three editions is 25 under par. Those same three winners only averaged 27 sub-par scores en route to winning. With such a small gap between the total scoring and final score, the player with the hottest putter is essentially going to win. This is why on our outrights card you will see players with larger odds and tremendous scoring upside. Taking Sungjae Im who has missed two of his last three cuts and can't score consistently at under +3000 pales in comparison to the opportunities I see at double his odds.

I can easily start to get excited in a field where the middle class rules the betting board. Weaker fields this year have produced some great betting results. No Scottie also means we can play this one straight up and grab a winner for the third week in row. Avoid 83 bunkers, 13 holes where water comes into play, capitalize on your birdie chances, and you'll be in the conversation Sunday afternoon. The Zoysiagrass fairways are pretty wide, and a little length never hurts at 7,400+ yards. That length also dictates the approach game. Over one-third of the approach shots are hit from over 200 yards.

Just another week where a long iron game and a hotter putter will keep you near the top of the leaderboard. I'll get deeper into the outright skill set in the coming section but remember to keep other forms of motivation in mind during weeks like this. A middle tier win gives a player a two-year exemption and entrance into all of the signature events. A struggling star like Tom Kim needs FedEx Cup points. Non-European TOUR players need Presidents' Cup points. An inspired start can be ignited by a whole number of factors singular and combined. As you peruse our outright list, make sure you understand why they have been picked and you'll gain amazing insights into your weeklong of live betting.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 29 outright wins and covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.