LPGA Dana Open expert picks and predictions with our PGA Pro’s best bets for the 2024 golf tournament

In this betting preview:

• Tournament format breakdown
• Expert picks and predictions
• BetMGM odds to win
• Betting trends from past winners
• Course overview

From the beautiful shores of Lake Léman in France, we head to Toledo, Ohio. The LPGA truly is a global tour. The schedule design once again amazes me, but nonetheless we return to the Dana Open where Linn Grant turned in a wonderful RTL-winning performance by three strokes and earned us a +2200 ticket! (One of 14 outright predictions in 2023!)

Grant finished T26 at Evian last week with a couple rounds in the 60s. The talented Swede only has two top 10s this season, so I imagine she's looking forward to a Dana return. One of those strong finishes came four weeks ago at the KPMG Women's PGA (T9). Sahalee is an extreme parkland-style layout, and one that should inspire more fine play on behalf of the defending champion.

For the thirty-fourth year, Highland Meadows Golf Club is our host in Sylvania, Ohio. A par-71 layout that covers 6,666 yards, 111 yards were added to the course since last year's tournament. The course changes should help slow down the scoring. The average winning total over the past five years is 19 under par.

In 2021, Nasa Hataoka won with a total of 19 under par — and she only played 54 holes! The tournament was shortened that year due to weather. This becomes a bit of a birdiefest, and those who can really score on parkland style layouts tend to dominate the leaderboard landscape. We'll keep that in mind as we preview and predict the 2024 Dana Open. 

This preview is just that: a preview. For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Open Championship and the Dana Open winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Dana Open expert picks and predictions

Best bet to win: Esther Henseleit (+2500 on BetMGM)

Linn Grant dominated the 2023 edition of this tournament with her elite off-the-tee game and a spike week on approach. Following that blueprint, I love Henseleit’s chances to win coming into Toledo. The teenage phenom now in her 20s just finished T7 at the Evian and T14 at the KPMG Women’s PGA.

Awesome off the tee, Henseleit plays very well on parkland golf courses. She frames the holes and finds the fairways. Two top-16 results at Highland Meadows over the past three years (including a fourth place) shows she likes the landscape. We know winners need firepower down the stretch, and Esther can bring it. Take the trending star and cash again on Sunday at the Dana.

Best bet to place: Sarah Schmelzel to finish Top 10 (+450 on bet365)

Schmelzel is having a career year. The University of South Carolina star has five top-10 finishes on tour. The most recent was a T9 at Sahalee in the KPMG Women’s PGA, which requires a similar skill set to what she will need at the Dana Open.

Schmelzel has competed here five times, never finishing worse than 33rd. Over last two starts at HMGC, she finished fourth and 12th. Take her season-long success, add it to a favorable venue, and I like Sarah with 10 places. 

Best head-to-head prop: Stephanie Kyriacou over Hinako Shibuno (-120 on bet365)

Course fit can really determine a H2H metachup. Shibuno has been working on a comeback season. Her top 10s at the U.S. Open and KPMG were just washed by a T51 result at the Evian. Shibuno struggled with the putter, losing almost two strokes to the field and has failed to make the cut at the Dana Open in two attempts.

Kyriacou finished runner-up in France and enters HMGC having finished fourth here a year ago. With Shibuno’s putter struggling, take Kyriacou’s trend to win H2H in this birdiefest. 

Dana Open live odds to win

Odds (shorter than +10000) courtesy of BetMGM.  

Dana Open: Conditions, winning trends

Looking back at our outright card from last year, a wry smile comes to my face. Of course we had Linn Grant, but we also touted Haeran Ryu and Lauren Coughlin. Ryu is the betting favorite in the field alongside Linn, and Lauren Coughlin had a chance to win the Evian on Sunday finishing fourth.

Diving deep into the LPGA pays off, and we are primed to pull out another winner. Handicapping Highland Meadows is all about scoring. Who can create the most chances? To win, one woman will need to hole over 20 sub-par scores. HMGC is a wonderful parkland layout so the test begins off the tee.

Grant is one of the best drivers on tour. She gained over five strokes against the field with her driver.That set her up for an awesome approach week where she gained another eight strokes! Her Saturday 62 differentiated her and ultimately gave Linn the win. 

You need amazing approach play to create that many birdie chances. Iron play ranks number one in the major strokes play categories when it comes to scoring at HMGC. The last two leaderboard top 10s gained an average of four strokes on the field on approach. We don't have many long holes here. Hitting good solid mid-range scoring shots will get it done.

The second-largest gains in the field by the top 10 from 2022 and 2023 came with the putter. Players gained another four strokes there as well. That's eight strokes in two categories you can gain on the field by hitting it close and converting. Seven of the top 10 finishers one year ago gained over two strokes with their flat-stick. These greens are average in size at 5,000 sq/ft and covered in a standard Poa Bentgrass mix we see up north. The course is in great shape and suitable for making a ton of putts.

Over the past 10 years, the winners have played 39 rounds. The 2021 edition was shortened to 54 holes. Of those winning rounds, only five have been 70 or higher. In the last five years, only two rounds were outside the 60s, and both of those were a 70. Get ready to go low. For those coming from the Evian, it will seem normal.

Ayaka Furue won on Sunday with a 19 under par total. Another secret to scoring success in Sylvania are the par 3s. Looking again at the top of the last two leaderboards, those women averaged 2.8 on the par 3s. It may not sound like much, but that's lower than usual. The scoring average is almost always 3.0 even at the top of the leaderboard. You'll find success come Sunday if you can score on the short holes. Grant cruised to victory by going five under on the 3s.

Another advantage for the Evian competitors, they faced five par 3s each round during the championship. Eleven par 4s dominate the Highland Meadows scorecard. As mentioned, six of them are under 400 yards. Grant went 13 under on the 4s last year. Everyone will score on the par 5s. That's par for this event, but capitalize on the 3s and 4s and you will find yourself in the thick of it come Sunday.  

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Dana Open course overview: Highland Meadows

This course has three par 5s and six par 4s under 400 yards. Those nine holes are a great place to start when it comes to scoring. The finish is unique at Highland Meadows. Holes 17 and 18 are both par 5s. An exciting finish to an above-average layout has caused some drama over the years.

There have been 11 playoffs at the Dana in the 34 years contested at HMGC. One third of events ended in sudden death. We haven't seen one since 2018, so I wouldn't be surprised to witness extra holes this year. I doubt anyone would mind, as the forecast looks outstanding for golf. The ladies may dodge a couple of rain showers during the practice rounds, but Thursday through Sunday looks amazing for golf.

Those few showers should soften the course for scoring. Temperatures are predicted in the high 70s to low 80s. Here's the fun part: the women will have to deal with little to no wind — quite the contrast in conditions the men will be suffering through at Troon! With wind in the single digits and beautiful skies, I fully expect there to be a run at the scoring title of 23 under par set by Se Ri Pak back in 1998.

Sixty-eight bunkers and 10 holes where water comes into play will not slow down the world's best women. A field of 142 players is set in Toledo to compete for $1.75 million and a first-place prize of $262,500.

With only seven of the top 40 in the Rolex Rankings making the trip from France, LPGA knowledge will be a tremendous asset. We grabbed a Grant win last year the week after the U.S. Open, so who's to say we can't do it again following this year's fourth major championship?

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 31 outright wins and covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.