The Meijer LPGA Classic expert picks and predictions with our PGA Pro’s best bets for the 2024 golf tournament

In this betting preview:

• Tournament format breakdown
• Expert picks and predictions
• BetMGM odds to win
• Betting trends from past winners
• Course overview

That was a tough Sunday at the Jersey shore. Just like the men, we finished runner-up in our effort to get win number five of the season and three years in a row at the ShopRite. Ayaka Furue needed a closing birdie to force a playoff on the final few holes and didn't get it done. Alas, we move on to Michigan and The Meijer LPGA Classic for Simply Give. Never short on a good tournament name, this relatively new event returns to Blythefield Country Club for the tenth time.

The field of 144 carries a pretty decent cast of competitors. Twelve of the top 25 in the Rolex World rankings are in Michigan to compete for a $3 million purse. The top 65 and ties compete all weekend for a grand prize of $450,000. Almost double what the winning check was last week, it's nice to see this tournament grow in support and attention. Now if only the LPGA would just stop scheduling events against men's major championship weeks. It always amazes me how they take weeks off in the winter and then compete for eyeballs against a US Open!

This preview is just that: a preview. For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the 124th U.S. Open and the Meijer LPGA Classic winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

The Meijer LPGA Classic expert picks and predictions

All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Best bet to win: Minjee Lee (+2200)

We almost hit all three best bets last week. Ayaka Furue was the only miss, and she came in second place behind the winner Linnea Strom. Let’s stay hot on the LPGA wagers this weekend with Minjee Lee. A top-10 finish at the U.S. Open proved that her game is back.

An impeccable iron player, Lee is first on the LPGA for approach. That skill has also propelled her to No. 1 in the LPGA in par-3 scoring. While her brother (Min Woo) plods around Pinehurst, Minjee can build off of her three top-20 results at the Meijer in her last four starts with a Sunday sweat of her own.

Best head-to-head matchup: Atthaya Thitikul over Nelly Korda (+125)

It seems irresponsible to go against world number ones on both tours, but Atthaya Thitikul looks healthy and is playing like an elite player again. Sixth at the U.S. Open and fourth at the ShopRite, she must be in a better headspace than Nelly Korda.

I believe fatigue set in for the Rolex number one (Korda). As Nelly looks ahead to the season’s next major, watch Thitikul keep playing great and provide us with a big win.

*Best Bet of the week*
Leona Maguire to finish top 10 (+330)

In Leona Maguire’s last three Meijer starts, she has finished first, second, second. The super Solheim Cup star makes it happen at BCC year after year. The defending champion took last week off after the US Open to get some rest. With a full tank, I bet she unloads it again on the field in Michigan.

The Meijer LPGA Classic live odds to win

Odds (shorter than +10000) courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. 

The Meijer LPGA Classic: Conditions, winning trends

Speaking of KPMG, thanks to their support we can compare the player performances across individual statistics and various tournament venues. I researched the last two leaderboards for the Meijer and came up with the following player trends to help us determine the best outright card possible. I mentioned it already, but the biggest key I see is the scorecard. The par 3s and 5s represent over 55% of the holes. Those last two top 10s played the par 3s to an average of 2.90 shots. Just a tenth under par for the four days. Four of the five par 3s are uphill and present a very real challenge.

Those same 22 women (top 10 ties) played the par 5s in 4.43 strokes (on average). More than a half stroke under par, that's a significant edge. Our outrights have a perfect blend of par 5 scoring and par 3 saving talent. Scoring overall is a theme if your winner will be 20 under par. BoB statistics are another valuable indicator of success here. Players on those two top 10s are averaging 21 sub-par scores per tournament. Making birdies takes a hot putter and the ability to convert GIRs into low scores. Those top 10s gained more on the greens against the field than any of the other four main strokes gained skills.

Over five strokes on the greens by the two top 10s is significant. One place they didn't gain very much was around the green. I find that interesting because Blythefield CC has such small greens. The ARG test must be pretty mundane if the same two leaderboards are gaining less than a stroke against the field on average. Five of the eight par 4s are over 400 yards. Length will bring an edge to your game at BCC. With 28 acres of fairway, there's plenty of surface area to land drives for the LPGA. Accuracy off the tee is a hallmark of almost every elite player on tour.

With past champions like Lexi Thompson, Nelly Korda, Brooke Henderson, and Jennifer Kupcho, the theme of distance definitely makes sense. Not only have those ladies won here, but those same two top 10s from the past two years have more powerful players. On a week where golf tends to celebrate distance on the PGA TOUR, the women are the ones who can grip it and rip it. I doubt the men will be letting the shaft out down in North Carolina nearly as much.

Overall, I like this tournament. I believe it would be way more popular on a week where all of golf's attention is not on the men's national championship. Nelly Korda and other stars continue to compete at the Meijer which also means something. It is a classic northern style course where we get great scoring. Our outright card is defined by great par 5 scorers and solid approach players. Women who can play the par 3s at even par for the week. That's a really strong key toward contending. They need length and a putter which converts birdie opportunities. I'm not overly concerned with ARG acumen and bogey avoidance.

Those last two top 10s hit the green 78% of the time (on average). If you are missing greens, you are probably missing the cut. The polar opposite of Pinehurst, I want aggressive players who are attacking pins.

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The Meijer LPGA Classic: Blythefield Country Club

Blythefield Country Club is located on very hilly terrain in Belmont, Michigan. The result of a recent renovation, the par-72 scorecard is very unique. BCC has five par 3s, five par 5s, and eight par 4s. The seventh-longest course on tour, those par 5s really add up in more ways than one.

The average winning score of the Meijer over the past five years is 21 under par. When you consider 28 percent of the holes played are par 5s, you can see why the scoring is so low. Even more interesting, the greens at BCC are the fourth-smallest on tour. Tiny targets that give up a ton of birdies.

The course routing is changed for the tournament:

• The front nine is played 8, 9, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 17, 18
• The back nine is played 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 6, 7

The weather looks pretty good in Michigan this week. It certainly will be a lot cooler than what I'm feeling down in Pinehurst, NC for the U.S. Open. The forecast calls for temperatures in the low 80s each day and a chance of showers on Thursday.

The region has been relatively dry so the course conditions are optimal for another run at 20 under par. We will see some wind on Thursday alongside those grey clouds, but for the rest of the rounds the breeze will be in the single digits.

Seven of the previous nine winners are major champions. It is a prep week for our next major championship, the KPMG Women's PGA. I expect the women to be getting after it following a forgettable U.S. Open by many of the top-ranked players.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 30 outright wins and covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.