Mexico Open 2023 betting guide: PGA expert handicaps the best bet to win team event

After three weeks of challenging weather, the PGA TOUR has found paradise. Puerta Vallarta is the host port for the Mexico Open at Vidanta. The Pacific coast city is an official stop on TOUR for the second year in a row. Unfortunately, this resort destination comes just before a very busy stretch in the schedule. Only two players inside the top 50 in the OWGR are in this weekend's field of 144 players.

Defending champion Jon Rahm is one and Tony Finau is the other. Both stars are the prototype player for Vidanta Vallarta. The host venue is a Greg Norman design which features tons of length and plenty of penalty areas to navigate around. Rahm broke an eleven month win drought with his 17 under first place score. Finau finished second along with two others just one stroke behind.

Five of the inaugural top 10 from last year came in with pre-tournament betting odds over +8000 (80-1). I imagine the leaderboard will look very similar in this edition. Rahm and Finau are both certain to be near the top on Sunday while a couple of young stars attempt to secure their first win. Although a bunch of the big names aren’t involved, these weeks still have tons of drama. Watching Jordan Spieth win again is great, but seeing two first timers contend on Sunday afternoon is even more entertaining.

Mexico Open 2023: Odds

Mexico Open: Weather and venue

As I mentioned in the opening, we have reached a resort forecast. There is no rain on the radar and temperatures will soar into the mid 80s each afternoon. It won’t feel that hot, as that is when the coastal wind picks up as well. Vidanta Villarta is less than a mile from the Pacific Ocean. A southwest breeze consistently tests the competitors in the afternoon hours.

Norman built a big course. The par 71 scorecard measures over 7,500 yards. TPC Louisiana was almost as long last week and should give us a couple clues for who will contend again. Vidanta has five par-3s. So, the course plays even longer than what it shows on paper. Combine that with playing at sea level and on sticky seaside Paspalum, and length is your number one priority.

Just being a pure bomber won’t automatically place you in contention. There are 106 bunkers and twelve holes where water comes into play. Norman knows how to create a course that favors driving. One of the best drivers of the golf ball all-time, this layout exemplifies Greg’s big stick ego. Two par 3s measure over 200 yards, two par 5s over 600 yards, and five par 4s are over 475 yards!

You won’t just need length off the tee to compete for the $7.7 million dollar purse and $1.386 million dollar first place check. Vidanta Villarta has the most approach shots over 200 yards on TOUR. Throw in second shots on all the par 5s and long iron acumen is your second necessary skill. The greens are on average 7,000 sq/ft. Being above average in size will help, but overall the guys who find themselves in the top 65 and ties for the weekend will mostly be long hitters.

Mexico Open: Top 10 traits

Since this is just the second Mexico Open played at Vidanta, we have little historical course knowledge to call upon. I mentioned the top 10 finishers earlier. This eclectic bunch of stars and upstarts had a couple characteristics in common. By breaking down their success, we can definitely continue to pinpoint the player who will contend again on Sunday.

Every player in the top 10 gained off the tee. As a group their average gain was four strokes. Eight of those 10 were in the top 50 in driving distance on the PGA TOUR last season. The best correlation to success, even the fiftieth ranked guy on TOUR averages over 306 yards.

Conversely, five of them lost strokes around the green and still contended. Paspalum is an unfamiliar and unpredictable grass. The unknown mitigates great short game skill through the field. Around the green skill will always help, but this week it just won’t be as great of an advantage as it is in other weeks.

All of these long approach shots really add up over 72-holes. If you’re going to wager this week, your player must be a great long iron player. He’s going against Jon Rahm. Rahm already has four wins this season and a green jacket. To get the job done, 200 yard approaches must be in your wheelhouse.

The top 10 gained as many strokes (average) on the green as they did off the tee and on approach. That sticks out in my mind as another success indicator. Vidanta Vallarta’s make percentage for every distance outside of five feet is below the TOUR average. Don’t just focus on big time ball strikers. Make sure they can competently roll the rock as well.

The Mexico Open is a solid event. It will test these guys and create a bunch of drama on Sunday. You might feel less engaged because the stars aren’t all here, but I guarantee the entertainment will be electric. Rahm and Finau will get pushed by a couple of players in search of a life changing opportunity. That storyline always fuels me and as a result has me fired up to see how my best bets this week find their way into the winner’s circle.

Mexico Open: Best Bets

All odds from DraftKings or FanDuel

Best bet to win: Wyndham Clark (+1900 on FanDuel)

Wyndham Clark has made 14 straight cuts on the PGA TOUR. In his last five starts, he has three top six finishes. The ball striking blueprint Wyndham goes by is perfect for Vidanta Vallarta. A pure bomber off the tee, Clark is ranked third in the field for SG:APP. He can score on par 5s and his bogey avoidance skills on a windy coastal course with sand and water to watch for makes him a solid outright selection.

Best bet to finish in the Top 20: Gary Woodland (+125 on Fanduel)

Last year, Gary Woodland came in near the top of the betting board in Puerta Vallarta. He finished T24 and lost several strokes putting. He’s playing better this season and in his last start, the putter heated up in Hilton Head. It may not be warm enough to win, but it will certainly get him in the top 20 with his incredible length and long iron game.

Best bet to finish in the Top 20: Byeong Hun “Ben” An (+150 on DraftKings)

Ben An finished sixth in his last start at the Valero. A similar skill set is needed as TPC San Antonio was also designed by Greg Norman. Length, accuracy and short game saving skills are why An excelled there. He’s a bomber like Woodland and will certainly contend on Sunday afternoon.

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering LPGA and PGA TOUR winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

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