There is rarely much certainty when it comes to the top picks at the top of the MLB draft. The 2024 class was no exception.
The Guardians had the first pick, and they wound up going with star Australian second baseman Travis Bazzana out of Oregon State. From there, little else went off as expected. There was a surprise at No. 2, which led to a chain reaction of other surprising moves in the first round.
As with any draft, there is no telling exactly how good the class will turn out until years down the road. Players take a long time to reach the big leagues, and developmental paths are not linear. A "can't miss prospect" on draft day might struggle to make an impact, while an unheralded talent might fix perceived flaws and attain great success.
However, on draft night, based on the information currently known about the bonus pools and talent of each prospect, there can still be an evaluation of each pick made during the course of the proceedings.
MORE: Watch the 2024 MLB Draft live with Fubo (free trial)
Sporting News evaluated each of the 39 picks made in the first round through the Competitive Balance Round A of the 2024 MLB Draft. Follow along for analysis of each selection.
MLB DRAFT: Top 100 big board | SN's mock draft
MLB Draft grades 2024: Live picks, analysis for Round 1
Round 1
1. Cleveland Guardians — Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State
- Grade: A
There had been some speculation the Guardians could look to save money at the top of the draft. Instead, they took the player many believe to be the best player in the class. No doubt about it, this is a slam-dunk A grade. Bazzana one of the best hit tools in the collegiate ranks, and adds plus power and speed, even if he'll be limited to second. He could be in the big leagues by early 2024, and has the chance to be a middle-of-the-order talent in Cleveland.
2. Cincinnati Reds — Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest
- Grade: A-
The first shocker comes already at pick No. 2. The Reds were favored to take Condon, but opted to take the best pitcher in the draft. Perhaps Cincinnati saw Paul Skenes in the NL Central and decided to counter with the best arm in the following draft. There is risk with taking any pitcher and he's not a generational prospect like Skenes, but there is ace-caliber upside with his filthy slider and fastball that can reach triple-digits. The Reds took one Wake Forest arm last year in Rhett Lowder and the pick appears to have aged well. They're doubling down on Demon Deacon arms.
3. Colorado Rockies — Charlie Condon, OF, Georgia
- Grade: A
The player with the most power in the draft heads to the thin air of the Rockies. This is going to be an exciting pairing. Condon is a massive slugger who has often earned comparisons to prime Kris Bryant. He's no three-true-outcome player as he limits chase rates and walks at a high clip. Condon has impressive mobility and could be a solid corner outfielder in Coors Field. But this is all about the power in Colorado. That's going to be exciting to all baseball fans.
4. Oakland Athletics — Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest
- Grade: A-
Four picks, two Demon Deacons. Nick Kurtz is a dynamic hitter with the best plate discipline in the class and some massive raw power. He's also a slick fielder at first base. The ceiling looks something like Joey Votto. Taking a first base-only prospect this high is often a risky move, and with Jac Caglianone still on the board, there was potentially better value. But Kurtz could be a cheaper sign than Caglianone and still comes with a ton of offensive potency.
5. Chicago White Sox — Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas
- Grade: A-
The White Sox have needs just about everywhere both in the farm system and at the big league level. Faced with a decision of pitching or the college bats still on the board, Chicago took the best pitcher left on the board in Smith. The hard-throwing southpaw has lofty upside with a triple-digit fastball and a filthy cutting slider, though he needs to improve his third pitch and needs to shore up his strike-throwing. There's still sky-high upside in the arm of the Arkansas starter that makes it easy to see why Chicago went arm over bat at No. 5.
6. Kansas City Royals — Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida
- Grade: A
There was some talk Caglianone could go second overall. Perhaps even a dark horse to go first overall. Instead, he slides all the way to sixth. Caglianone cut down on his strikeout rate in his junior year, even if the chase rates are still a tad high. He demolishes baseballs with explosive power and has middle-of-the-order upside. Announced as a two-way player, Caglianone throws triple-digits from the left side, but his control will likely keep him off the mound in the pros. That he's likely only headed to the pros as a hitter doesn't diminish his value in the slightest as he has arguably the highest upside of any college hitter in the class.
7. St. Louis Cardinals — J.J. Wetherholt, 2B/SS, West Virginia
- Grade: A
Another A-grade pick in the top 10. Wetherholt was another 1-1 contender, and wound up landing at No. 7 in the draft. How did Wetherholt fall to the seventh pick? A hamstring injury diminished some of the luster on the preseason No. 1 prospect. When healthy, he has shown an advanced hit tool with at least average power and above-average speed. He's all but certain to stick at either shortstop or at worst move to second, where he'd profile as an above-average defender. That's an enticing profile to be on the board at No. 7.
8. Los Angeles Angels — Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee
- Grade: B
This is a bit of a reach for the Angels. Moore is a standout hitter with lightning quick bat speed that helps him reach above-average power. He has at times had issues with off-speed pitches and there are concerns about his long-term contact rates, even if he has walked at a decent clip in his career. He also struggles defensively at second and could need to move somewhere else, which puts extra pressure on the bat to perform. Moore has a high offensive ceiling, but a top 10 pick is a little surprising.
9. Pittsburgh Pirates — Konnor Griffin, SS, Jackson Prep (MS)
- Grade: A
There might not be more upside in any player than Griffin. The 6-4 shortstop has tons of raw power and is a true burner on the bases. He also possesses a rocket arm and is an above-average defender at both shortstop and might be even better if he were to play in center field. Some scouts believe there is risk in his swing that could lead to high strikeout rates and could limit the potential, but if everything clicks, no one in this class can match his ceiling.
10. Washington Nationals — Seaver King, 3B/OF, Wake Forest
- Grade: A-
Make that three Demon Deacons in the top 10. The third is King, a versatile college player with the chance to play multiple positions across the infield and outfield at average to slightly above-average levels at just about any of the positions. There's excitement and upside in the bat as well. As things stand now, he's an above-average hitter with electrifying speed. There's still room for him to add some power to his right-handed swing with the upside being a 20/20, super-utility player. There aren't many players that can match his high floor in this draft.
11. Detroit Tigers — Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard-Westlake (CA)
- Grade: A
The Tigers take the second-best prep player in the draft in Rainer. Like Griffin, he has five-tool upside. Unlike Griffin, the hit tool is a bit more polished and has fewer cause for concern. He lacks the thunderous power of Griffin, but it's still above-average thump that could develop into 20-plus-homer power. Defensively, his cannon arm helps to overcome some defensive shortcomings. If he has to move to third base, he could be a well above-average defender at the position.
12. Boston Red Sox — Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M
- Grade: A
A fractured ankle might be to thank for Montgomery's fall outside the top 10. Because before that, he seemed almost certain to go as a top five or 10 pick. The switch-hitting outfielder is all about the power: rocket arm, explosive bat. A former pitcher, Montgomery's arm now is a major asset for him defensively. He's also showed improved plate discipline that allowed him to reach his considerable power in 2024. Assuming the medicals aren't a problem, he could be a middle-of-the-order batter with an advanced hit tool and 25-plus-homer power.
13. San Francisco Giants — James Tibbs III, OF, Florida State
- Grade: A-
Still few real reaches to this point in the draft. Tibbs, our No. 15 prospect, is all about the bat. His plate discipline and contact ability give him an incredibly high floor as a player unlikely to struggle facing advanced pitching. He's also developed standout power during his career at Florida State. Tibbs could be a below-average left fielder or a designated hitter long-term, placing pressure on the bat to key into more power as he continues his development.
14. Chicago Cubs — Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State
- Grade: A
Back-to-back Seminoles in the draft, though not in the order we had the two listed. We had Smith slightly ahead of Tibbs, in part because of the more well-rounded profile. Smith has the chance to be an above-average defender, particularly with his strong arm. He makes plenty of contact at the plate and there's some raw power still left in his 6-3 frame that could make him a well-rounded third baseman in the pros.
15. Seattle Mariners — Jurrangelo Cijntje, RHP/LHP, Mississippi State
- Grade: B
Start the intrigue: Cijntje was announced as a switch-pitcher. There had been speculation he might be forced to pitch only right-handed, where he has better command and a more diverse arsenal. The slider is a wipeout offering from both sides, and he's got the potential at least to offer the left-handed pitching as an option at the next level, even if he mostly pitches right-handed. Taking Cijntje over Trey Yesavage is a bit of a surprise, but there's some upside in Cijntje that has made him one of the fastest rising prospects in the class.
16. Miami Marlins — PJ Morlando, OF, Summerville (SC)
- Grade: D+
This is a serious stunner. Morlando was viewed as a possible Day 1 pick with a later selection by a team with bonus pool money to spend. Selecting him at No. 16 is a bit high. He's an older prep prospect at 19, and though he has an advanced hit tool for a high-school prospect, there isn't a ton of power at present in the 6-3 outfielder's swing. Morlando is also not a burner and is a below-average defensive player. Unless he makes strides defensively, he needs to show more power in the pros.
17. Milwaukee Brewers — Braylon Payne, OF, Elkins (TX)
- Grade: D
Make it back-to-back stunners. We had Payne at No. 86 on our big board, and there's no way this move isn't about saving a bit of bonus pool money. There's some upside in Payne, who is already one of the fastest runners in this class. That speed has translated to above-average defense even if a weaker arm. Payne doesn't have as much power yet, but there is the chance for him to develop more in his 6-2 frame. The Brewers have made players with this profile in the past work and there could be some pool strategy in play with this pick, but it's possible Payne could have been drafted later.
18. Tampa Bay Rays — Theo Gillen, 2B/SS, Westlake (TX)
- Grade: A-
The mini-run on prep bats continues, and Gillen might be one of the best in the class. The offensive profile might be topped only by Griffin as he is an incredibly disciplined hitter with 20-plus homer power and the possibility to be a dynamic runner once fully healthy from a junior-year knee injury. Gillen is all but certainly leaving shortstop as his defense has lagged behind the offensive skillset, but if the bat is what many think it can be, he'll profile well anywhere on the field.
19. New York Mets — Carson Benge, OF, Oklahoma State
- Grade: A
It's rare to find someone with five-tool upside this late in the draft. But that's who landed in New York's lap at No. 19. Benge could have gone earlier if a team believed in his defensive prowess in a corner. He has made all the necessary improvements with his plate discipline over the years and has continued to reach his plus power, building up a middle-of-the-order profile. Benge puts his speed to use on the bases and in right field, where his rocket arm profiles particularly well.
20. Toronto Blue Jays — Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina
- Grade: A
Some thought Yesavage could be a top 15 pick. Instead, the Blue Jays land a pitcher many believe to be the third-best college arm in the class. He fires a mid-90s fastball and pairs that with a filthy splitter from his high arm slot. Adding to his repertoire is a pair of above-average breaking pitches in a slider and curveball. Yesavage's control and command is advanced and helps him avoid reliever risk that typically comes with other pitchers. For him to still be on the board at No. 20 is a major boon for Toronto.
21. Minnesota Twins — Kaelen Culpepper, SS, Kansas State
- Grade: A
This fit has made sense for a while now. Culpepper's lightning-fast bat speed and defensive ability match the Twins' models to a tee. Culpepper has shown improved plate discipline each year he's been at Kansas State and he makes plenty of contact, which gives him a high floor. He could stick at short or move to third, where he'd be an above-average defender. It wouldn't surprise many to see him develop some power, which would only continue to improve the well-rounded profile.
22. Baltimore Orioles — Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina
- Grade: A
Talk about an exciting pairing. The Orioles have been among baseball's best organizations in developing hitters. Honeycutt is a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder with elite speed and explosive power. The flaw has been that he has never been able to combine contact with the power — strikeouts were down as a sophomore, power was down; strikeouts were up as a freshman and junior; power was up. If Baltimore can work its magic on Honeycutt and reduce his strikeouts, that could help him reach his considerable ceiling in the pros.
23. Los Angeles Dodgers — Kellon Lindsey, SS, Hardee (FL)
- Grade: B
The Dodgers selecting a toolsy player always requires a bit of extra consideration. On paper, Lindsey is a slight reach, with some expecting he would have fallen between the first and second rounds. But the Dodgers always seem to perform well in the draft, so they've earned the benefit of the doubt. It's not hard to see what Los Angeles sees in Lindsey. He's arguably the fastest player in the draft and in that 6-2 frame, there's plenty of raw power still left for him to reach. Lindsey makes consistent contact and should stick at shortstop, which give him a high floor among prep players.
24. Atlanta Braves — Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro (AZ)
- Grade: A
There are probably going to be some MLB teams kicking themselves watching the Braves draft Caminiti. The top prep pitching prospect in the class, Caminiti has a mid-90s fastball from the left side and a balanced repertoire that features two plus pitches in the slider and changeup, and another solid pitch in his curveball. For a high schooler, particularly a 17-year-old, he has advanced feel for pitching and a repeatable delivery. He was SN's top-rated prep pitcher and the No. 16 player on the board. That's major value for Atlanta at No. 24.
25. San Diego Padres — Kash Mayfield, LHP, Elk City (OK)
- Grade: A
It didn't take long for the second high-school pitcher to go off the board, and it's another lefty. Mayfield is unlike many prep pitchers in that he's arguably command over stuff as a prospect, with advanced control that wows many evaluators. The bet is that in the 6-4 frame is room for more consistent velocity on a fastball that occasionally hits 97. The changeup is already a standout pitch that serves as his top out-pitch, and the curveball has some upside.
26. New York Yankees — Ben Hess, RHP, Alabama
- Grade: C
Seeing Hess arrive in the first round is a bit of a surprise. There is certainly some upside as he hits 99 mph and offers a filthy slider that gives him a pair of plus pitches. He has dealt with injuries and struggled to control his arsenal, two factors which many believed would drop his draft value. Because of his large frame and big stuff, there is more upside than most college arms but there's also more risk from college pitchers.
27. Philadelphia Phillies — Dante Nori, OF, Northville (MI)
- Grade: C-
It's a bit surprising to see this many 19-year-old prep players drafted, and Nori is another one that stands out as a bit of a reach — he was ranked No. 60 on our board. He has an advanced approach to the plate with a higher floor than many prep players, but there's not as much power currently in his 5-10 frame. He does balance that with above-average speed, which helps him profile as an above-average defender and a likely future center-fielder. There is a higher floor for Nori than most prep players, but also not as high of a ceiling.
28. Houston Astros — Walker Janek, C, Sam Houston
- Grade: A
The top college catcher on our board is the first college catcher off the 2024 MLB Draft board. And it's a local pick that makes a lot of sense for the Astros. Houston has thrived taking college players in recent drafts, and Janek fits their developmental mold well. He's likely to stick at catcher and has the potential for a standout offensive profile with power and a balanced approach at the plate. His cannon arm will make would-be base stealers think twice about running on him.
29. Arizona Diamondbacks — Slade Caldwell, OF, Valley View (AR)
- Grade: A
The Diamondbacks surprised some when they drafted a 5-11, speedy, left-handed hitting outfielder 16th overall in 2019. That player was Corbin Carroll. Five years later, they're drafting a 5-9, speedy, left-handed hitting outfielder 29th overall. Caldwell's lightning quick bat gives him surprising power potential to accompany his disciplined approach. Like Carroll, he offers stellar defense and plenty of wheels to make him an exciting prospect. Arizona has developed this type of prospect well in the past (Carroll and Alek Thomas), and make for a good pairing again in 2024.
30. Texas Rangers — Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford
- Grade: A
The rival Astros snagged the best catcher in the draft. The Rangers countered with another collegiate catcher not far behind. Moore walked more than he struck out in 2024 and blistered 16 homers, showing glimpses of an above-average profile as a hitter. The question will be what he does defensively. Some think he'll need to move to first due to his limited quickness and arm strength, but if he can develop enough defensively to stick at catcher, he could be the best backstop in the class.
Prospect promotion incentive picks
31. Arizona Diamondbacks — Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Kentucky
- Grade: A
Landing Caldwell and Waldschmidt is an extremely nice pairing for the Diamondbacks. Waldschmidt burst onto the scene in 2024, boasting plus power and speed with 20/20 upside and a patient approach that gives him a considerably high offensive upside. There are some questions about his defensive home long-term, and he will need to show improved instincts in the outfield to stick there.
32. Baltimore Orioles — Griff O'Ferrall, SS, Virginia
- Grade: B
The Orioles went high ceiling with Honeycutt in the first round. Now they're going high floor. O'Ferrall is highly polished with the ability to make consistent contact, above-average speed and decent hands that should help him stick at short or possibly bump over to second as an above-average defender at the keystone. There's not much upside in his profile, but the floor makes this a solid selection.
Compensation picks
33. Minnesota Twins — Kyle DeBarge, SS, Louisiana-Lafayette
- Grade: C+
Make it two college shortstops for the Twins. DeBarge has a higher chance of sticking at short than Culpepper, but comes with a lower ceiling overall. DeBarge has a quick bat that makes plenty of contact and he's a slick defender unlikely to move off shortstop. There's limited power in his frame and he's rarely hit for much authority with wooden bats, which is a concern.
Competitive Balance Round A
34. Milwaukee Brewers — Blake Burke, 1B, Tennessee
- Grade: C-
The Brewers might have saved a bit of money early with the Payne pick, but then going to Burke is an interesting decision. He was not regarded as a guaranteed Day 1 selection as a power-first, below-average defensive first baseman. He's shown some improved contact rates and reduced his strikeout rate, but still chases outside the zone more than many would like. The power is among the best in the college ranks, but there's immense pressure on him to put the rest of the bat together.
35. Arizona Diamondbacks — JD Dix, SS, Whitefish Bay (WI)
- Grade: B-
On paper, this is a bit of a reach. Dix is at No. 85 on our big board. But after spending big early on Caldwell and Waldschmidt, the Diamondbacks could be landing another solid player at a decent price tag. Dix makes contact from both sides of the plate consistently and boasts a well-rounded profile overall as an above-average defender at short and some speed. Our biggest knock — and the biggest knock for others — has been concerns about his health as he had a shoulder injury that required surgery. But if he can stay healthy, there is some upside in the 6-2 shortstop.
36. Cleveland Guardians — Braylon Doughty, RHP, Chaparral (CA)
- Grade: A
The Guardians have an impressive track record of developing pitching, and Doughty could be the latest standout Cleveland arm. He has a well-rounded profile with a mid-90s fastball, hard-breaking curve and advanced slider that give him a better profile than most prep pitchers. He has a repeatable delivery that helps him control his pitches. At 6-1, he's a bit smaller than most starters, but the well-rounded repertoire gives him a higher floor than most high-school arms.
37. Pittsburgh Pirates — Levi Sterling, RHP, Notre Dame (CA)
- Grade: B-
The Pirates are going all upside in this draft. After taking Griffin at No. 9, they're going with Sterling at No. 37. The 6-5 right-hander looks the part of a standout, young starting pitcher, though the velocity isn't quite up there at this point and it slowed down a bit during this season. The secondary stuff has potential, but he'll need to show more velo to reach his considerable upside.
38. Colorado Rockies — Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa
- Grade: A
Perhaps the biggest faller of the draft to date, Brecht's slide finally ended at No. 38 with the Rockies. The fastball/slider combination has earned comparisons to Skenes as he hits triple digits with the heater and filthy slider that sits in the upper-80s. The problem has been his control, which has led to inconsistent outings and problems with walks. Landing in Colorado could be a scary fit for Brecht, but his stuff might not be impacted as much by others in the high altitude of Coors Field. It will be all about harnessing the arsenal.
39. Washington Nationals — Caleb Lomavita, C, Cal
- Grade: A
There are four catchers that evaluators have gone back-and-forth about as the best backstops in the 2024 class. Lomavita is right in that mix. His power has wowed evaluators and he's a more athletic backstop who could make the move to third base or the outfield if needed. That athleticism could lead to him developing further behind the plate, though if Washington wants to accelerate his path to the big leagues, he might need to move out of the spot. The bat should play just about anywhere.