There's little doubt Caitlin Clark will win the Rookie of the Year award after a brilliant campaign in which she's averaged 18 points, 8 assists, and 6 rebounds per game. She's leading all rookies in most of the important stats. That also includes some of the not-so-great ones too.
Clark's 5.5 turnovers per game not only tops all rookies, it's the highest for any player in WNBA history. She is going to shatter the all-time record of 4.4 per game, set by Chantel Tremitiere in 1997 (min. 10 games played). And Clark's 171 turnovers through 31 games has already smashed the all-time mark for most in a season with a quarter of the year left to play.
Clark's turnovers are obviously a problem. But there is some more nuance and context behind those numbers. Here's why it's a serious issue, but not quite as bad as it might first seem.
Caitlin Clark turnovers: A deep dive
Clark's turnovers are unprecedented in the WNBA, but so are her assists. There has never been a player like her in the league's history. That can make it difficult to put her statistics into context.
In this season, for example, Clark is on an island all by herself when it comes both to turnovers and assists. When looking at all of the guards in the league, she is running away from the pack in both categories.
That's not to discount Clark's turnover problem. Her assists don't fully mitigate the damage that she's doing when she turns it over. But she's one of only three players in the league's history to average eight or more assists per game.
Assist-to-turnover ratio is a quick measure to judge the quality of point guards. She falls well short of the other maestros in the league in that category.
Although Clark does turn it over at a crazy rate, those giveaways aren't necessarily hurting the Fever quite as much because of her brilliant passing and her oversized role in orchestrating their offense. Turnovers are going to happen for whoever is controlling the ball. Clark hasn't substantially increased the amount the Fever have had as a team. Last season, with her off the roster, they turned it over on 18.7 percent of their plays. This year, that number is...18.7 percent.
What Clark has done is improved the team's offense, from 101.8 points per 100 possessions last season to 102.3 this season. She fits passes through windows that players have never seen, creating points out of thin air. The flip side is that she's also giving them away where no one else would.
I watched all 171 of Clark's turnovers this season, and there is a lot of low-hanging fruit to get that number down next season. Many of her passes are in way-too-tight windows, and she will learn what passes do and don't work with more experience. The great point guards have never been afraid to take risks early on though — many elite guards like Sue Bird, Ticha Penicheiro, and Lindsay Whalen saw their turnovers dramatically decrease as they got older.
That said, there are some clear mistakes though that Clark has to cut back on. She will try some crazy passes that have almost no chance of getting through.
Many of her turnovers come from a too-loose handle. She gets ripped one-on-one far more frequently than she should, particularly when bringing the ball up. She seems to struggle with the size of WNBA defenders — a lot of her bad passes get tipped or swallowed up completely. And when teams send two defenders at her (which is very frequently), her decision-making slips to her worst.
Other turnovers aren't as much on her. These passes were far from perfect, but a lot of her giveaways occurred after hitting teammates in the hands or putting the ball in spots that they should have been able to grab.
Those were the good outlet passes. Clark is far too aggressive on other ones. She doesn't quite have the timing down of where her teammates will be or how high defenders can jump to intercept them. She also doesn't have great accuracy, throwing a lot of passes right at teammates' feet. Her signature turnover is the bounce pass into heavy traffic.
Most of her turnovers come from trying to be too ambitious. Those are the types of plays that many coaches want their players to make early in their careers.
Clark will probably remain a high-turnover player, and shattering those records certainly isn't where she wants to be. But if she cuts out some of her most egregious attempts at threading the ball through nonexistent windows and tightens up her handle, she can get them down to a reasonable level while still keeping the parts of her game that make her special. That seems like a reasonable expectation that she should hit next season.