NFL fans are hard pressed to find a Week 15 NFL matchup featuring both teams trotting out their opening week starter at quarterback. Our Thursday Night Football matchup pits the Los Angeles Chargers (5-8) against the Las Vegas Raiders (5-8). The Raiders are favored at -3 and the OVER/UNDER is 34, but neither team is settled at QB.
The Chargers situation is a bit clearer than the Raiders but equally unfortunate. Increasingly maligned starter Justin Herbert is lost for the season, requiring surgery for a broken finger suffered during their Week 14 loss to the Broncos. Longtime backup Easton Stick will get the nod in his place, making his first NFL start in nearly five seasons after being drafted in the fifth round in 2019.
Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce took over for Josh McDaniels after Week 8 and promptly declared rookie QB Aidan O’Connell as his guy, supplanting veteran Jimmy Garoppolo. The problem is that the Raiders haven’t scored more than 17 points in a game since their 30-6 Week 9 win over the Giants, and O’Connell’s regression has featured 2 TDs and 4 INTs in his last three starts, capped off by a 21-of-32 day with 171 passing yards and and interception during their shutout loss 3-0 to the Vikings in Week 14. O’Connell gets the nod this week, but all signs point to the thinness of the ice his startership rests on.
Chargers vs. Raiders receiving props & odds: Paltry passing projections despite dome matchup
Chargers QB Easton Stick (190.5 passing yards) and Raiders QB Aidan O’Connell (204.5 passing yards) aren’t expected to tear the roof off the Allegiant Stadium dome, but it does seem like it won’t take a Christmas Miracle for both of these signal-callers to hit the OVER on these passing yard totals. Bettors will want to be wary of Raiders coach Antonio Pierce’s possible decision to bench O’Connell midgame in favor of Jimmy G if O’Connell starts as glacially slowly as he did last week vs. the Vikings.
TNF props pick: Davante Adams OVER Receptions Made
Davante Adams has averaged 6.25 receptions per game during his last four outings. The targets have been there (10, 7, 13, 13). With O’Connell’s job as starter firmly on the line in Week 15, count on the desperate QB to throw to Adams a ton in hopes that his best WR can save his job for this week at least.
TNF props pick: Davante Adams Longest Reception OVER
For the reasons above, Adams is going to see the ball a ton on Thursday Night Football in Week 15. Consider taking the OVER on receptions and parlay it with longest reception to beef up the odds.
TNF props pick: Austin Ekeler OVER Receptions Made
Although Austin Ekeler isn’t having the monster-type season he’s been known for in the past, the veteran RB will be in line to keep things short and manageable for QB Easton Stick by being featured regularly in the screen game.
TNF props pick: Hunter Renfrow UNDER Receptions Made
Renfrow has gone under 2.5 catches in seven of his last 10 outings, and with O’Connell likely to focus heavily on Adams it makes sense to think Renfrow will continue the pace of his 2023 production, a season in which he has only notched 25 catches and 255 yards thus far.
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Chargers vs. Raiders rushing props & odds: Two tiny bets stick out
TNF props pick: Aidan O’Connell OVER Rushing Yards
With the understanding that O’Connell has only rushed seven times for 11 yards this season, with a 3 yard-long, he could easily top this number with a single scramble.
TNF props pick: Joshua Kelley UNDER Rushing Yards
Taking the over here has just as much to do with leading back Austin Ekeler’s production in 2023 (only one 100-yard game) as it does with Kelley’s. Ekeler only has 101 yards rushing in the past three games, and Kelley has tallied just 6, 16 and 8 in those games. These backs didn’t produce with a healthy Justin Herbert on the field — it doesn’t seem likely either will do better without him.
Where to bet Chargers vs. Raiders receiving and rushing prop odds
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