There is no shortage of exciting rookies set to make their NFL debuts in September, and now is the time to research and determine which newbies to bet on for 2024 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.
C.J. Stroud took home the prize last year after his scintillating rookie campaign under center for the Houston Texans. Over the past five years, the award has been won by quarterbacks three times (Stroud, Justin Herbert in 2020, and Kyler Murray in 2019), bookending a two-year stretch from 2021-2022 where wideouts Ja’Marr Chase and Garrett Wilson were honored as the top offensive rookies.
Saquon Barkley in 2018 is the most recent running back to win OROY, and oddsmakers don’t have any ball carriers listed anywhere near the top of the 2024-25 betting board.
Now that we’ve narrowed down which positions to target, let’s look at NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds and make a few predictions before the season starts!
Odds to win 2024-25 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
Bears quarterback Caleb Williams opened as the clear betting favorite for OROY, followed by Commanders QB Jayden Daniels and Cardinals receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.
Here are live odds from top online sportsbooks.
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Caleb Williams
Will the No. 1 overall pick have an exciting rookie season and reels of game-breaking highlights, powered by his rocket arm and nimbleness in the pocket? That seems likely. Are the odds and resulting payout for Caleb Williams to win OROY exciting? Absolutely not!
WRs DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze is an insane amount of talent for a top draft pick to be paired with in year one, as the cupboard is usually pretty bare for the team with that draft slot. Williams represents the lowest-risk bet on this prop, but the juice here is nothing to write home about.
Jayden Daniels
The Commanders QBs notched only three pass attempts in his preseason debut against the Jets, but the LSU star scored a rushing TD, and his dual-threat ability will keep defenses honest. However, it’s hard to envision Daniels balling out at a level high enough to win OROY, given the level of talent around him (save for Scary Terry, of course).
Another factor not weighing in Daniels’ favor is Dan Quinn leading the team. His tenure with the Falcons from 2015-20 featured a risk-averse style of play.
Marvin Harrison Jr.
The Cardinals will be fun to watch, and the pairing of Kyler Murray and uber-talented Marvin Harrison Jr. is a core component of that. They might not win a ton of games, but they’re going to be slinging it this season.
Points of concern re: Harrison Jr’s likelihood of winning OROY are the overall talent level around him on offense, and the fact that coach Jonathan Gannon has already opted to sit Murray for the entire preseason. An injury to the diminutive Murray puts the offense in the hands of Desmond Ridder or Clayton Tune, and the Arizona offense will grind to a halt if that happens.
Malik Nabers
The concerns listed above about Marvin Harrison Jr.’s candidacy for OROY and the Cardinals also apply to Malik Nabers and the Giants. However, Nabers being paired with speedsters Jalin Hyatt and Wan’Dale Robinson gives their wide receiver room a bit of an edge.
Another factor that shouldn’t be underestimated is the New York media’s level of fanfare and fanaticism that will come if Nabers gets off to a hot start for the G-Men. With Saquon gone and Daniel Jones hard to define, Nabers is in a spot where his shine will be magnified big time if he produces. His impending target share and the +1400 odds make him an enticing pick.
Bo Nix
Speaking of enticing picks, the Broncos' Bo Nix certainly falls in that category. The Oregon product has garnered the most OROY bets placed at Fanatics Sportsbook at 15%, Ben Fawkes reported. That seems insane when you take into account that Nix hasn’t been named the starting QB for Denver yet. It seems less so when you realize the announcement is likely to happen soon. Plus, head coach Sean Payton is motivated to prove that his offensive schemes still work, and that everything that went wrong on offense last year was Russell Wilson’s fault and not his. Nix is a trendy pick with good reason.
J.J. McCarthy
The Vikings rookie gave a brief synopsis of what we can expect during his preseason debut vs. the Raiders, going 11-for-17 for 188 yards and two touchdowns. He also got picked on what seemed like a staredown. Having Justin Jefferson to throw to helps his chances for this award, but head coach Kevin O’Connell has stated that Sam Darnold will start Week 1 against the Giants, which makes choosing McCarthy for OROY dicey. There’s no telling how short Darnold’s leash will be in Minnesota, but it’s risky to bet McCarthy when no one knows if/when he’ll be QB1.