Following the draft, it's easy to assume that your Week 1 starting lineup is set for you. The first two (or three) wide receivers you drafted are your starters, with the same going for the other positions in your lineup. But adjusting your lineup between the draft and Week 1 may be in your best interest.
We don't have concrete data just yet, but we have a solid idea of which matchups will be favorable (or unfavorable) for each team and position. Recognizing the strengths of opposing defenses and utilizing this information to make start/sit decisions is the easiest way to set an optimal lineup each week.
Some players, like Justin Jefferson, Breece Hall, and Travis Kelce, are "set it and forget it" players. If they are going to suit up and take the field, they will be in your lineup regardless of their matchup. But today we're here to talk about some of the more questionable players who could reasonably hit the bench if they face a tough defense.
We've got three players at each position that you should consider giving a breather on your bench this week. Don't be shocked if any of these players put up a complete dud in Week 1.
WEEK 1 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
Fantasy QB Busts Week 1
O'Hara: Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers - Purdy and the San Francisco offense kick off their 2024 season against one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Jets allowed just 12.1 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks last year, the second-lowest average in the league. Coupled with the fact that Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams are just now rejoining the team, the Niners will likely get off to a slow start offensively.
Iyer: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys - The Browns were the second-stingiest pass defense last season and will have Myles Garrett, Dalvin Tomlinson and the pass rush going after an offensive line in transition. The secondary can also contain everyone not named CeeDee Lamb .
Williams: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers - Herbert carries some big-time name value, but he has a very uphill battle to climb this year. Jim Harbaugh replaces Brandon Staley as the head coach, which may be an upgrade in real-life, but will it be a fantasy upgrade? Harbaugh is expected to focus on the run, and even if they do want to pass the ball, there's a dearth of options for Herbert to spread it around with. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are gone, Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston remain, and they drafted Ladd McConkey. On top of all that, he's dealing with a foot injury and missed much of the preseason. If the injury slows him down, Maxx Crosby could feast for the Raiders and make it a long Week 1 for Herbert.
WEEK 1 NFL: Power rankings | ATS picks | SU picks
Fantasy RB Busts Week 1
Michael O'Hara: Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders - White is a player who was on my "Do Not Draft List" throughout the offseason. His path to success is by dominating the touches in the Las Vegas backfield while maintaining respectable efficiency. But keep White on the bench this week while we get a feel for his role in the offense, and whether he can by with volume alone.
Vinnie Iyer: D'Andre Swift, Chicago Bears - Swift faces a tough run defense matchup against a much-revamped Titans defense, scheme- and personnel-wise. It is uncertain how many initial targets he will get as a long-term key part of the passing game with the team having favorable downfield options for Caleb Williams' debut.
Ed Williams: Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders - There are a couple of warning signs here in Robinson's Week 1 matchup against Tampa Bay. First of all, Austin Ekeler is now on the team, and we still don't have a crystal clear idea as to what his role will be. Many have speculated he'll do most of his damage in the passing game, and that he's lost a step when it comes to the running game. What if last year's disappointment ends up being more of a fluke than the first signs of Ekeler breaking down? That would spell very bad news for Robinson. And it's also a tough Week 1 matchup against Vita Vea and the Bucs.
2024 NFL RANKINGS: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | Defense
Fantasy WR Busts Week 1
O'Hara: Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears - It may be tempting to get the Bears' shiny new toy into your lineup this week, but he's better off on your bench in Week 1. Rookies have historically taken some time to ramp up their fantasy production -- this is especially true for a receiver who is starting their career behind Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore. Odunze could be a phenomenal asset down the stretch, but he's a risky play early in the year.
Iyer: Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans - The Bears' trio of top cornerbacks are nasty, and Ridley can be totally erased downfield outside by Jaylen Johnson and rising star Tyrique Stevenson, forcing Will Levis to instead find his short-to-intermediate inside options.
Williams: Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns - Jeudy has really struggled to live up to his real-life Draft Day cost since coming into the league, and this might not be the season he turns it around. And it's hard to put much of the blame on Jeudy himself right now, but the QB situation is too up in the air to trust him right now. Deshaun Watson sat the end of the preseason with a shoulder issue, and he just hasn't looked like anything remotely resembling the same player that was in Houston before his off-the-field issues came to light. If a switch is made to Jameis Winston, that could actually work in Jeudy's favor, but that likely won't help you here in Week 1 against the Cowboys.
Fantasy TE Busts Week 1
O'Hara: Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers - If you waited at tight end in your draft, Freiermuth may slot in as your TE1. But keeping him out of your lineup this week is a must. He was in a very ugly rotation with Pittsburgh's other tight ends this preseason and it could result in 'Muth not getting enough snaps to be fantasy-relevant this year. Keep him on your bench until we see what Arthur Smith has concocted in this tight end room.
Iyer: Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans - The Colts are pretty good in inside coverage and they held him to nine catches for 76 yards total in two games off 14 targets last season. He is bound to be less involved with more options at wideout.
Williams: Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears - This one could end up being an overreaction to preseason usage reports, but all indications out of Bears camp was that Gerald Everett was seeing many more snaps than we had anticipated. With Moore, Allen, Odunze, and Swift also in the mix as receiving options, the safer bet is to see how this situation plays out before banking on Kmet as a TE1.
Fantasy Defense Busts Week 1
O'Hara: Baltimore Ravens - After putting together one of the most impressive defensive seasons this century, the Ravens were one of the first defenses off the board in every draft this offseason. Unfortunately, their matchup with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs doesn't paint a pretty picture for their Week 1 outlook. Keep them on your roster if you have the space, but it's tough to start the Ravens this week.
Iyer: New York Jets - This will be an elite fantasy defense and may end up scoring the most in the end, but the beginning seems a little tricky for reliable points on the road against the explosive 49ers' offense on Monday night.
Williams: Philadelphia Eagles - If you still have the second half of last season in your mind, then you likely wouldn't consider the Eagles as a startable defense anyways. But I'm expecting Philly's defense to rebound significantly with Vic Fangio at the helm. But the Eagles' Week 1 matchup is against a Packers offense that was really clicking at the end of last season. And on top of that, it's a Friday night game in Rio, Brazil. This one is more likely to be a shootout, so hold off on starting the Birds.
