In this betting preview:
- Tournament format breakdown
- Expert picks and predictions
- BetMGM odds to win
- Betting trends from past winners
- Course overview
Before we jump into the LPGA preview, it's worth noting that Read The Line readers collected +2800 on Davis Thompson last week. If you have not subscribed to our weekly newsletter, what are you waiting for? Each week there’s a full betting card covering outrights, DFS, props, and H2H matchups for the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Thompson’s trophy at the John Deere Classic is our fifth outright winner this year!
A week before the men play their fourth major championship of the season, the ladies of the LPGA head to Évian, France to compete in their fourth major championship of 2024; the Amundi Evian Championship. Set on the beautiful Lake Léman between France and Switzerland, this famous body of water is approximately 45 miles long and over 1,000 feet deep. Near the base of the Swiss Alps, Évian-les-Bains, France is approximately 1,500 feet above sea level. The Evian Resort's Champions Course produces some of the most unbelievable golf views we see all year on the LPGA.
It has been three weeks since our last major, two weeks since our last individual stroke play tournament, and one week since some of the field competed in the Dow Championship team event. Needless to say, between travel and financial constraints, the LPGA schedule is anything but fluid. Reminds me of the number one player in the world. Two months ago, we were talking about Nelly Korda making history. Now we just wonder if she can make a cut in a major tournament! Korda missed the weekend at the US Open and the KPMG Women’s PGA Championship. Her stroke average over those two events; 75.
This preview is just that: a preview. For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Amundi Evian Championship and the Scottish Open and the Travelers Championship winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.
Amundi Evian Championship expert picks and predictions
All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Best bet to win: Atthaya Thitikul (+1200 on FanDuel)
Atthaya Thitikul has finished fifth, eighth, and ninth in her last three starts at the Evian Championship. Thitikul just won the Dow Championship in June with her partner Ruoning Yin and is poised for more. Following an early season injury, Atthaya is back in the form that won her rookie of the year in 2022. One of the best players to not have won a major, her combination of power and scoring fits perfectly at Evian.
Best placement prop: Brooke Henderson to finish in the top 10 (+300 on FanDuel)
Talk about another player who contends every year at Evian, and that’s Brooke Henderson. The talented Canadian won here in 2022 and finished runner-up one year ago. I believe course experience is a huge edge on this uneven landscape. Henderson is sixth on tour in GIRs and top 20 T2G. That complement works very well in Evian’s water world.
Best head-to-head prop: Hannah Green over Yuka Saso (-120 on FanDuel)
Hannah Green leads the LPGA in par 3 scoring. With five par 3s per round, that is a significant edge. Not to mention, Green is second in putts per GIR. She converts on the green. Yuka Saso’s iron game is the weakest part of her skill set. She’s ranked one hundred and twelfth on tour! Green is more complete T2G and therefore takes down this 72-hole tournament matchup.
Amundi Evian Championship live odds to win
Odds (shorter than +10000) courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
| Golfer | Odds |
| Nelly Korda | +800 |
| Atthaya Thitikul | +1200 |
| Lilia Vu | +1400 |
| Jin Young Ko | +2000 |
| Ayaka Furue | +2200 |
| Miyu Yamashita | +2200 |
| Linn Grant | +2200 |
| Ally Ewing | +2500 |
| Brooke M. Henderson | +2800 |
| Hyo Joo Kim | +2800 |
| Hannah Green | +3300 |
| Charley Hull | +3500 |
| Minjee Lee | +3500 |
| Rose Zhang | +3500 |
| Celine Boutier | +3500 |
| Nasa Hataoka | +4000 |
| Yuka Saso | +4000 |
| Haeran Ryu | +4500 |
| Leona Maguire | +4500 |
| Sei Young Kim | +5000 |
| Mao Saigo | +5500 |
| Rio Takeda | +5500 |
| Jennifer Kupcho | +5500 |
| Megan Khang | +5500 |
| Gaby Lopez | +5500 |
| Allisen Corpuz | +6500 |
| Madelene Sagstrom | +6500 |
| Georgia Hall | +7000 |
| Andrea Lee | +7500 |
| Patty Tavatanakit | +8000 |
| Hye-Jin Choi | +8000 |
| Carlota Ciganda | +8000 |
| Alison Lee | +8000 |
| Jin Hee Im | +8000 |
| Yewon Lee | +9000 |
| Narin An | +9000 |
| Lydia Ko | +9000 |
| Amy Yang | +9000 |
| Jenny Shin | +9000 |
| Gabriela Ruffels | +9000 |
| Ariya Jutanugam | +9000 |
Amundi Evian Championship: Conditions, winning trends
It’s that time of the season where form always seems to take over. Celine Boutier won the Evian last year and followed it up with another win in Scotland the very next week! We have to keep an eye on those who are performing at a very high level. In 2022, Brooke won just three starts before she took home the Evian title. Comparing course history is important on the Champions Course, but I also want players who are competing at a high level in the last month plus on tour.
On my deep dive through the last two top 10s, I gathered a very good picture of what it takes to contend. This hillside setting is one of the biggest challenges players have over all 72 holes. I don't believe there's a level lie on the entire scorecard. See how it affects the different holes.
- There are FIVE par 3s to contend with. Players are hitting those par 3 greens 70.6% of the time. They represent 28% of the holes you will play. The 3s go uphill/downhill and vary greatly in length from 155 to 226 yards. 70%+ is a high number. Scoring on these holes is vital to contending and that's why all of our outrights are in the top 20% for par 3 scoring in the field.
- At Evian, the field only hit the par 5 fairways 58.3% of the time. The average for hitting all thirteen fairways is 70% for the two top 10s studied. Our outrights must be long (and accurate) to take care of the 5s. That's an interesting combination as it clearly tells us being a bomber just isn't good enough on this hillside. Length is an advantage here, but course history and managing the par 5s have proven to be even more important.
- The key to playing the par 4s is hitting GIRs. Over eighteen holes, the two top 10s hit 76% of their GIRs. On the par 4s, that number drops to 63.2% for the field! Playing well on these varied holes is a huge part of the scoring formula. What's even more interesting is the par 4s average 390 yards in length. The nine par 4s represent some of the most challenging terrain on the course so be careful if you want to contend.
I believe this will become a big accuracy contest. Soft conditions and small targets will create an endless amount of scoring chances for those ladies who can point and shoot. Seventy percent of your fairways and 76% of your GIRs is solid ball striking. Once you reach those greens, the best players convert. Strokes gained putting was just slightly beneath strokes gained approach for impact on those leaderboards. We established how important the iron game is, but the putter needs to perform as well. Our outrights not only reflect those women who lead strokes gained putting, but putts per GIR as well.
If you are going to hit these greens, you must convert. Limited birdie chances place more pressure on the putter. These greens are not difficult to read, but they all sit on the side of a hill. The issue is where you putt from and can you miss it in the proper place. You will see some wild rolls if you keep giving yourself 40' birdie putts. I love this group on our card, because they all play with a very strict game plan. Very rarely will you see these four get out of position. When they do, each takes her medicine and brings it back into play. With so many scoring friendly holes, one can easily get tricked into going for everything.
By now we know who is prepared to win a major this season. This group all rests inside the top 25 T2G players on tour. They can hit their irons and putt. Give them 72 holes and they will separate from this field. Par 3 scoring is one of those places. Play those 20 holes (over four rounds) under par and you will certainly see your name in a sweat position come Sunday afternoon. I love the Evian because the last three holes are really entertaining. I realize the men are playing early too, but if you have a moment to watch the world's finest women in France, I promise you will be entertained.
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Amundi Evian Championship: The Champions Course
The Champions Course is a par 71 layout measuring 6,527 yards. Over the last decade, the average winning score is 15 under par. The winner this week may not need to go as deep as Lake Léman nearby, but this major does see some scoring.
The course has:
- FIVE par 3s measuring 185 yards on average
- Four par 5s stretch out to 524 on average
- Nine par 4s ranging from 331 to 437 yards and averaging 390 yards in length
The Champions Course sits on the side of a hill and at this elevation will lose about 3% of the scorecard length. The longer holes tend to go downhill like the 226-yard par three fourteenth while the short 331-yard seventeenth hole goes straight uphill. Sandwiched by a great par 3 at 16, and closing risk reward par 5 eighteenth, these final three holes have provided plenty of drama over the years.
The current forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-70s to low 80s. The region has been dry until this week. Rain is predicted for Thursday and Friday. Over an inch should fall and that will make this course very scorable. The wind will be no more than a slight breeze. I expect the ladies to go low this week with these conditions. That average score of 15 under will probably get passed. Our outright card reflects major players from this season who can really dial up the BoB% numbers. The last two top 10s produced an average of 20 sub-par scores.
The course almost entirely sits west to east. This direction will provide very few challenging crosswind holes and make target practice even easier for the field of 132 players. The top 65 and ties will make the weekend to play for a purse of $8 million and a first-place check of $1.2 million! Of those 132 who start on Thursday, three players have odds under +2000. That's what happens when the favorite cannot be trusted to take a ton of the handle. The opposite of Scheffler, books don't have faith Nelly can close, so her odds are +1100 and that shortens a number of other options. Eleven women hold odds in the 20s and 30s.
With so many below 30-1, I'm dialing in the research. Over the last two championships, our nine outright selections accrued a WIN, and four more top 10s. Pay attention to the skills needed on this predictive landscape. The last five leaderboards all look alike around these parts. Those who won always seem to contend and most of the contenders have come very close to winning. Local knowledge plays a large part in any player’s success. Keep in mind, watch the clock as all of this takes place earlier than US time. Get those bets and lineups in before bed on Wednesday night.
Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 31 outright wins and covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.