RSM Classic betting guide: Our PGA professional previews the next FedEx Cup Fall event

RSM Classic: Low (score) Country

The 2023 PGA TOUR will come to a close at the same venue it has for the past few years: Sea Island Golf Club at St. Simons Island, Georgia. The five-star resort will host 156 players for the 14th edition of the RSM Classic. Tournament host Davis Love III epitomizes low-country life — a little fishing, some beach time, and the long ball across the links.

For an event that lacked serious engagement over the past few years, the FedEx Cup Fall has now made this the place to be on TOUR for those who need those precious FedEx Cup points! What used to be just drama to decide the winner now has serious storylines determining who gets their card for 2024. And don’t forget those First 10. The first 10 guys (51-60) on the points list will earn an entry into the “signature” AT&T Pro-Am and the Genesis Invitational.

Both of our placement bets won at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. Brian Gay continued his successful run in Bermuda, finishing inside the top 40 and cashing a +170 bet. Brendon Todd also gave us a winning week with a top 20 finish and +110 pay day.

The format for the RSM is a little different. Yes, 150-plus players are battling for 36 holes to get inside the top 65 and ties to make the weekend and compete for $8.4 million dollars. A first-place check of over $1.5 million would be nice, but those near that cut number of 125 would certainly take the points needed to get their card instead. Another season on TOUR and a Masters invitation is worth far more than that prize money. Of course, the money would be nice, too!

To manage their way through the week, players will compete on two different courses at Sea Island Golf Club. The Plantation and Seaside layouts are incredible low country designs weaving their way in and out of the riverbeds, trees, and sand dunes.

(For a direct connection to the betting boards, click the links in our Read The Line summary.)

The Plantation Course was redesigned by Davis Love III in 2019. Originally laid out by Walter Travis in 1928, the course covers 7,060 yards and plays to a par 72. Four par-5s on this scorecard highlight the scoring opportunities. Seven of the 10 par-4s play under 440 yards which will lead to plenty of birdie chances as well. Players only compete on Plantation once in the four rounds.

The Seaside Course is the primary test for the tournament. The field will play here three times throughout 72 holes. Tom Fazio redesigned it in 1999 for Harry Colt (1929). It is very cool how this course moves in and out of the tidal zone. Wetlands, sand, and waterways frame the fairways on Seaside and provide a very beautiful setting. Accuracy is important on both courses, but Seaside implies more penalty areas, and generally more wind!

The weather looks better than last year on St. Simons Island. Adam Svensson won the tournament a year ago at 19 under par in a ski cap. Winning totals ranging from 14 to 22 under par are all weather dependent. The forecast calls for a storm system moving through on Wednesday through Friday. It will dump about an inch (.86”) of rain. Temperatures are going to be seasonable in the mid-70s.

The wind predicted range is in the teens. The players will take those temperatures for the Atlantic coast in mid-November. Should Thursday or Friday turn into a mess, those in the field on Fazio’s setting by the water (Seaside) will be severely tested. Plantation is far more protected by trees and holds a lower scoring average.

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the RSM Classic winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

RSM Classic: Live Outright Odds

RSM Classic: Two courses, same skills

If you took the entire list of past champions at the RSM and lined them up, they would all look (and play) the same. That sounds obvious, but not all TOUR stops have such a consistent archetype of winners. Adam Svensson, Talor Gooch, Tyler Duncan, Kevin Kisner, and Mac Hughes all share a very similar skill set and build. As a result, both courses at the resort require the same player characteristics to contend. The first essential skill needed is a hot putter on Bermudagrass greens. The Low Country has some of the grainiest Bermudagrass surfaces on TOUR.

Proven putters have a considerable edge at Sea Island. That would make you think local residents would have an advantage, but the macro truth is the resort hosts a ton of premiere tournament golf. Most PGA TOUR players have competed at Sea Island at some point in their playing career. The edge of living on the island is only a factor when it comes to travel.

The last 10 winners have made an average of 22 sub-par scores the week they won. The average winning score for the last decade is 19 under par. Plenty of players get there, too, as RSM has seen six sudden-death playoff winners in the past 10 editions. Something about three rounds on a par-70 course always seems to keep the competition tight.

Both courses at Sea Island are short by PGA TOUR standards. The field will employ a ton of wedges and scoring irons into these hole locations. One piece of research that stood out was long iron play. As it turns out, all PGA TOUR players are really good from 150 yards and in. Those same 10 winners differentiated their iron game with a couple of significant long iron shots on the path to victory. Those six par-5s (across two courses) and longer par-3s require great swings to score. Make a solid strike and you’ll create an edge on the field.

Seventeen of the 22 par-4s are under 440 yards. Par-4 scoring will again help you climb that leaderboard. Seaside has 12 par-4s to play each round. The 10 RSM champions have averaged +9 strokes over the field on the 4s. Most of those gains come in the 400-450 yard range. This is a key analytic, because not all players can compete here. Our best bets thrive on those holes and have a proven track record at Sea Island.

Course knowledge goes a long way. Getting comfortable on Seaside takes time. I have played both courses over 20 times each. They both have nifty little nuances you must experience to appreciate. A couple rookies have won here, but a large majority have shown success on property before they grabbed the trophy. Where to lay up off the tee? Which quadrant of the green can you miss it on? Making 20+ birdies requires accurate ball striking. The more confident you are seeing the target, the better your chances of hitting it close.

If the biggest edge comes on the Bermudagrass greens and with the iron game, all players must be in position to attack. Driving accuracy will not lead to large gains in OTT, but it creates opportunities. Historically, the field has a very high driving accuracy percentage (71%) versus the TOUR average (62%). The fairways are resort wide, but everyone in the field is also engineering a game plan to stay in them by using less than a driver. This is why you’ll hear a lot of comparisons to Harbour Town and Pebble Beach, two coastal settings where accuracy is far more important than distance.

The strategy is simple and will narrow down the field tremendously: continue to shrink the names for our card by monitoring recent form. Many of the FedEx Cup Fall courses require Bermudagrass putting and wedge play as well. Just one week ago in Bermuda, we won both betting card placements. Let’s keep the momentum going in the Golden Isles and cash a couple more at the RSM Classic.

RSM Classic: Gotta go Billy Ho!

Best bet to win: Billy Horschel (+4500 BetMGM)

In his last two PGA TOUR starts this season, Billy Horschel finished 13th and fourth. He didn’t qualify for the FedEx Cup Playoffs, so Horschel went to Europe and collected two more top-20 results on the DP Tour. Billy lost at the RSM in a five-man playoff in 2016 and has been grinding the second half of 2023. He’s a great Bermudagrass putter and excellent par-4 player. Now that his approach game is complementing his flatstick, Horschel is a real threat to win in this field. Need proof? Over his last five tournaments, Billy Ho has gained over seven strokes against the field four times!

RSM Classic: He will deliver

To finish in the top 10: JT Poston (+600 bet365)

JT Poston is one of the betting favorites to win. “The Postman '' is a perfect fit for Seaside and Plantation. The putter is super elite and his ball striking has been impeccable since mid-summer, gaining over four strokes in his last five starts. Yet for some reason, he only contends on Sea Island. Instead of predicting the win, take JT with 10 places and collect a nice pay day.

RSM Classic: Best Bet of the Week!

To finish in the top 40: Matti Schmid (+105 Draftkings)

Coming close last week in Bermuda but ultimately finishing third, Matthias Schmid is having a ball striking moment. He’s top 5 in the field T2G over the last 36 rounds, and he hits over 75 percent of his greens in regulation. Schmid’s FedEx Cup Fall has been solid — and at 120 on the points list, he can earn his card for 2024 with one more really solid finish.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by five-time award-winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 26 outright wins and covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter