The NFL’s first ever Black Friday game features the Miami Dolphins swimming north to battle the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium in Week 12.
The Dolphins (7-3) have gone 3-2 in their last five contests and enjoy a comfy two-game divisional lead over the Bills and a three-game lead over the Jets (4-6) in the AFC East.
Miami’s narrow victory over the Las Vegas Raiders was far less comfy in Week 11, as they failed to cover the beefy -13.5 point spread and needed an end zone interception by Jalen Ramsey at the very end to hold on to win by a count of 20-13. While it may be somewhat concerning that the heavily favored Phins eked out a close win over Raiders rookie QB Aidan O’Connell, those pale in comparison to the QB concerns the Jets face.
Coach Robert Saleh appears to have joined the millions of Jets (and other teams’) fans who think the Jets need to bench Zach Wilson no matter what draft slot he was picked in. Unless the Jets open a time travel portal and bring back a prime Vinny Testaverde, New York is going to have trouble keeping up with Miami behind newly announced starter Tim Boyle.
Betting odds for Dolphins vs. Jets: Point spread, moneyline, total for NFL Week 12 matchup
Here are the latest NFL betting odds for Dolphins vs. Jets:
Dolphins betting news: Waddle in for a big day?
Miami is 6-4 ATS, but have only covered once in their past four games. Tyreek Hill’s brief exit in the second quarter in Week 11 turned out to be just a brief hiatus and nothing worth fretting over for this week’s game.
Lightning in a bottle RB De’Von Achane and his ridiculous 11.82 YPC this season returned vs. the Raiders, but just for one carry and one yard before taking a blow to the same knee that landed him on IR for a month. Coach Mike McDaniel sat the rookie the rest of the game as precaution, so although he’s technically been given the green light vs. the Jets, it remains to be seen if RB TD leader Raheem Mostert’s workload will remain dominant.
In addition to Tyreek Hill’s injury not being an issue, there’s little point in discussing prop bets related to him since he’s been putting up insane totals nearly every week. A more interesting offensive weapon discussion to be had regards his counterpart, Jaylen Waddle. Waddle went for 4 catches and 55 yards on his eight targets last week, which lines up with his production this year — consistently less than bettors expect of him.
With Waddle facing a Jets team that is going to struggle to stay in the game due to their QB issues, look for Waddle to get some Thanksgiving-spirit love on targets, especially in the red zone. Bettors can also look for Waddle to snare his fourth receiving touchdown, which many thought he’d have hauled in weeks ago.
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Jets betting news: Tim Boyle takes the helm
The Jets are 4-5-1 ATS this season. They have gone through deep valleys and long stretches of not scoring touchdowns, despite a sixth-ranked defense that has consistently sets the table for success via field-position. One can never tell if a QB change will provide the spark sought by the head coach, but their offense ranks 29th in yards per play (4.6), and that doesn’t figure to jump dramatically the rest of the way.
Dynamic wideout Garrett Wilson was handcuffed and limited to 9 receiving yards on eight targets during their 32-6 drubbing in Buffalo in Week 11. This insane dropoff comes on the heels of a four-game streak where he eclipsed 90 yards in each contest. Look for Wilson to earn a double-digit target share, although what he’ll be able to do with them via his new QB remains to be seen.
RB Breece Hall was clamped and limited to just 23 yards on 10 carries last week, but he figures to enjoy more success against a Dolphins defense that allowed 99 yards to Las Vegas and 117 yards vs. Kansas City the week before.
Dolphins vs. Jets props
- Jalen Ramsey has three interceptions in extremely limited playing time, and it could pay off well to take the prop for this ballhawk to snag another vs. the Jets on Friday. Tim Boyle will likely have a short playbook, which will enable Ramsey to freelance off-script and ballhawk however he pleases.
- Tim Boyle's statline and the end result for this squad are unlikely to be pleasing, taking the UNDER on his passing TDs could work out well for bettors. The Jets are going to have to pass a ton to stay in this game, but last Sunday’s paltry 2.4 yards per attempt average doesn’t offer much optimism about his ability to get the ball down the field.
Dolphins vs. Jets Week 12 prediction
Tim Boyle and the Jets are likely to get bull rushed like a mall security guard when the gate comes up this Black Friday. Look for Tua and the Dolphins to put up gaudy offensive numbers and cruise to a 31-14 victory, which may still feel like some sort of a win to Jets fans who have long been clamoring for Zach Wilson to be glued to the bench.
Pick: Dolphins