For the past few years, the winner of the NFC South has entered the playoffs with a record hardly better than the wild card teams they inevitably fall to. That is precisely the case this season, with the New Orleans Saints (7-7) squarely in the running for the division title. Their Thursday Night Football opponent, the Los Angeles Rams (7-7), are in a similar spot but have shown much more promise in recent weeks. The Saints opened as 4.5-point favorites and the OVER/UNDER was set at 46.
The Saints trail the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7) by a tiebreaker in the NFC South and sit ninth in the NFC wild card hunt. The Rams path to the playoffs is more limited, as they aren’t going to catch the San Francisco 49ers (11-3) for the NFC West title. They do presently sit in position for the final wild card spot, and a home win over New Orleans in Week 16 will further increase their odds of giving Matthew Stafford another chance to ball out in the playoffs and carry Los Angeles further than many predicted they’d go in what felt like a rebuilding season early on.
Regardless of which team wins, bettors and fans alike will be rooting for a less controversial chain of events than what took place during the 2018 NFC Championship Game between these teams when the refs botched a potential pass-interference penalty so badly it was dubbed the “NOLA No-Call” and led to a rule change allowing pass interference to be challenged by coaches.
Betting odds for Saints vs. Rams: Point spread, moneyline, total for TNF Week 16
Here are the latest NFL betting odds for Saints vs. Rams:
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Saints betting news: New Orleans 2023 ATS record is surprisingly bad
There are a few reasons that betting the Saints ATS has been vexatious in 2023, and you don’t have to be such a New Orleans expert that you know how to spell Tchoupitoulas to grasp them. A lot has to go into amassing a 4-9-1 record against the spread, but unlike a delicious gumbo this recipe is more akin to a voodoo recipe of bad off-the-field conduct, bad luck with injuries and bad performance even when healthy.
The Saints’ Creole roux of not covering the spread can be primarily attributed to:
- RB Alvin Kamara isn’t the first person to get into trouble in Las Vegas, but the repercussions for him doing so and being suspended for the first three weeks of the season didn’t help the Saints get out on the right foot ATS. They went 0-2-1 without him, and Kamara is averaging an uncharacteristically low 3.9 YPC since his return.
- WR Michael Thomas has only suited up for 10 games so far this season and is currently on the tail-end of an IR stint due to a knee injury. The Saints’ standout receiver has surprisingly not tallied more than 68 yards receiving in a game in 2023.Thomas hopes to be available for Week 17 and a playoff run, but he won’t be able to help this week vs. Los Angeles.
- QB Derek Carr has been beat up throughout the year, but Carr has been underwhelming outside the context of being able to stay upright as well. Fans’ knee-jerk reaction in the offseason thinking that the equation of decent QB + playing in the dome in New Orleans would lead to some Colorado Rockies home-field type stat boosts were misguided. Expecting Drew Brees-like numbers wasn’t an accurate assumption to make. Then again, few people forecasted that Carr would be sitting at just 16 TDs/7 INTs at this point with fans clamoring for Taysom Hill to lead the team.
Rams betting news: Los Angeles? More like WIN Angeles betting against the spread
Most times in the NFL, a team’s ATS record remains somewhat consistent throughout the course of a year. In cases where long winning or losing streaks take place, it’s usually due to the presence or absence of a marquee player... usually a quarterback and/or his favorite downfield target.
That’s precisely what’s going on with the Rams, who are 8-5-1 ATS this season. Their overall record tells a tale in two acts when put under the microscope.
Act One:
The Rams go 4-4-1 ATS in their first nine games, but stellar WR Cooper Kupp starts the season on IR. Highly productive RB Kyren Williams basically takes Kupp’s place on IR after a Week 6 ankle injury.
Intermission:
Brett Rypien throws for 130 yards in a 20-3 loss in Green Bay, spelling Matthew Stafford after his thumb injury vs. Dallas in Week 8.
Act Two:
Matthew Stafford returns and the Rams start their current 4-1 heater ATS, including covering the spread in their last four games entering Week 16’s clash with New Orleans. The Rams only loss ATS in their last five games was by half a point, where they didn’t cover -1.5 during their 17-16 win over Seattle in Week 11.
The Rams have averaged 32.75 PPG in their last four games.
Saints vs. Rams props
Two props for the Saints vs. Rams Week 16 game worth considering are:
- Tyler Higbee OVER receptions
It seems like TEs are always heavily involved in Saints games (both by and against them), and expecting Higbee to notch three catches isn’t too high of an expectation. When the Rams offense is clicking the way it has been for the past month, you can expect stat lines for the L.A. TE similar to last week’s four catches for 36 yards performance.
- Derek Carr UNDER passing yards
Carr has averaged just 188 YPG in his last three contests. With Aaron Donald and the Rams defense playing at home and the Saints not getting much production out of anyone not named Chris Olave, this yards total prop might be steep climbing for Carr to achieve.
Saints vs. Rams prediction
The Saints are a confusing team — they’re in the playoff hunt and seem like they belong in the middle of the pack in the NFC. However, every month or so they put up a clunker of a loss that makes you think they’re a lower-middle-class tier team.
Expect New Orleans to deliver a clunker and fail to cover the spread against the red-hot Rams.
Pick: Los Angeles