The Buffalo Bills (8-6) will be the first foes Los Angeles Chargers (5-9) interim head coach Giff Smith will face when the teams meet at SoFi Stadium in this Week 16 Saturday matchup. The Bills enter QB Josh Allen’s home state as 12-point favorites with the OVER/UNDER set at 44.
This game features one team heating up and looking like a unit no one will want to face in the playoffs, while the other is sifting through the rubble of a disastrous 2023 season and building for 2024 and beyond.
Buffalo is in the thick of the AFC wild card hunt, trailing three other 8-6 teams (Bengals, Colts, Texans) by tiebreakers going into this week. They’re also riding high on the heels of their dominant 31-10 Week 15 home win over the Cowboys, led by RB James Cook’s 25-179-1 rushing bonanza. While Buffalo has had their ups and downs this year, if they make the postseason with their rushing game producing like this they will be an extremely tough out.
The Chargers are coming off a brutal 63-21 Thursday Night Football rout at the hands of the Raiders, which led to Los Angeles firing head coach Brandon Staley and GM Tom Telesco. Los Angeles was already twisting in the wind after QB Justin Herbert’s season-ending hand injury, but the magnitude of their 38-point loss last week was embarrassing enough to cause the team to clean house midseason.
Betting odds for Bills vs. Chargers: Point spread, moneyline, total for Week 16 Saturday
Here are the latest NFL betting odds for Bills vs. Chargers:
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Bills betting news: Buffalo aims to continue hot streak ATS
Buffalo is 6-7-1 ATS in 2023, and to say this team is streaky in this regard would be an understatement. The Bills went 3-1 ATS in their first four, but that ride on the gravy train was interrupted by what came next: a brutal six-game stretch between Weeks 5-10 where they failed to cover once.
The Bills appear to have moved past their midseason ATS doldrums, riding a 3-0-1 streak into Week 16.
We often see several versions and levels of a team throughout the year, and with the Bills it largely boils down to their ground game. Ty Johnson and Latavius Murray are serviceable RBs but lack the game-breaking speed and big play ability that James Cook offers.
Before Week 15, Cook hadn’t rushed more than 17 times in a game. After carrying 25 times vs. Dallas (and earning AFC Offensive Player of the Week status), BIlls fans must be extremely hopeful that their offensive attack continues to involve Cook handling more than 20 rushes per game.
Cook’s 179-yard outburst coupled with backup Ty Johnson’s shoulder injury in Week 15 should both contribute to Cook garnering 20-plus touches this week.
Chargers betting news: Los Angeles limps toward the finish line
The Chargers were supposed to be good but are not. It seemed unlikely that coach Brandon Staley was going to be their guy past this year, especially on the heels of their crushing playoff exit in Jacksonville where they blew a 27-point lead and lost in historic fashion. However, giving up 63 points to a team that had just been shut out 3-0 four days earlier was enough to cause Los Angeles ownership to hit the shred button.
They’re 4-9-1 ATS and have failed to cover in five of their last six games. Given what we saw from the team while being shredded so badly on TNF last week, it’s going to take some big spreads and some sort of spark from their interim head coach Giff Smith for them to cover anything the rest of the way this season.
Justin Herbert’s replacement, Easton Stick, amassed an impressive line of 23-for-32 for 257 yards passing and a TD in Week 15, but he also had fumble and interception returns against him within about 25 seconds between the end of the third quarter and the start of the fourth.
Betting on or against QBs that nobody has seen play can be tricky, but focusing on OVER/UNDER betting trends for the Chargers is not. Los Angeles has gone under in 10 of their 12 games, which would make you think they’re likely to keep doing so the rest of 2023.
However, the OVER/UNDER resting at 44 this week seems tantalizingly low. Buffalo has averaged 29 PPG in their last four, and with Stick throwing TDs but also turning the ball over at a high rate, that figure might be easily surpassed.
Bill vs. Chargers props
Two props for the Bills vs. Chargers Week 16 game worth considering:
- Dalton Kincaid UNDER receptions
Kincaid was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday due to a shoulder injury, but it’s been reported he’s likely to suit up on Saturday at less than 100%. This prop suggestion centers completely on the inference that Kincaid suits up but takes part in less packages and plays than usual. With Buffalo likely to cruise, this isn’t a far-fetched chain of events to target.
- Gerald Everett OVER receiving yards
Whether Easton Stick continues to play decently or if he doesn’t, this prop line for receiving yards should be attainable for Chargers TE Gerald Everett in Week 16. Everett has tallied 41, 39, 44 and 43 receiving yards in his last four outings. The Bills are likely to score a lot, necessitating that Los Angeles passes a lot. Even if this wasn’t a game with such a big spread, it is a small ask to suggest that Everett can net half of what he’s averaged in the past month.
Bills vs. Chargers prediction: Bills continue to roll
The Chargers new coach isn’t going to be able to right all his team’s wrongs overnight, but losing by less than 38 would be a great place to start. Look for Buffalo to try to replicate their massive success running the ball last week vs. Dallas, and for the Los Angeles defense to begin sagging heavily in the second half. The Bills can beat the Chargers through the air but will probably run a copy of their Week 15 game plan vs. L.A. and every team that comes their way after.
Pick: Bills