Patrick Mahomes might not be a clairvoyant, but he was on point when on-field mics caught him telling Buffalo QB Josh Allen that they’d meet regularly in the postseason after the Bills vs. Chiefs instant-classic AFC Divisional Round game in Kansas City in 2021.
That 42-36 OT win by the Chiefs created such a stir about NFL playoff overtime rules that changes were enacted starting the following season, to guarantee both teams one possession each in OT.
This Sunday night’s AFC Divisional Round rematch is unlikely to spur further rule changes, but it’s going to be an entertaining showdown when Mahomes and the Chiefs (12-6) journey to Highmark Stadium to battle the Buffalo Bills (12-6).
The Bills are favored by , and the O/U is set at . The O/U reflects the weather forecast, which will be cold and windy but not too snowy and dangerous to be out jumping through flaming plastic tables while wearing Zubaz.
The Chiefs have been so wildly successful through the first six years of Mahomes’ career that this Sunday will mark his first road playoff game. It is insane that he’s won two Super Bowls without having to play away from Arrowhead Stadium, but here we are. It’s time for AFC Divisional Round bettors to figure out if it’s more likely that Mahomes notches his first road win, or if Josh Allen and Co. can lead Buffalo to the Conference Championship round or beyond. Let’s take a look!
Chiefs vs. Bills odds: Point spread, moneyline, total
Here are the latest Chiefs vs. Bills point spreads, totals and moneylines on odds boards at top-rated sportsbooks:
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Chiefs betting news: You’d think a team two wins from the Super Bowl would hit the OVER more often
KC is 10-8 ATS this season (playoffs included), and has kept it even going 3-3 in their last six. However, they’ve put up an abysmal 5-12 mark vs. the O/U and have hit the OVER just once in their last six tries.
Kansas City’s offense definitely looks different than the 2017-2021 Tyreek Hill Era, when he seemingly got behind the secondary every single time Mahomes scrambled in the pocket. That group went 1-1 in the two Super Bowls they reached. However, they impressively proved last year that they can win titles without Tyreek, featuring JuJu Smith-Schuster at WR in his place.
This year’s playoff run got off to a promising (yet frigid) 26-7 home win over the Dolphins last week. Rookie WR Rashee Rice had an impressive game, notching 8 catches for 130 yards and a touchdown. With Travis Kelce slowing down just a bit, and the lack of the Tyreek deep ball aspect of their offense, the team has leaned heavily on RB Isiah Pacheco and has taken a less explosive albeit still successful pace offensively.
While they’re still covering at a consistent clip, they’re hitting the OVER about as often as Chiefs TV broadcasts go without showing Taylor Swift’s luxury box.
The last time the Chiefs scored more than 30 was during their 31-17 Week 12 win in Las Vegas against the Raiders. It’s been hard to imagine Kansas City going such long spans without scoring 30 or 42 in a game, but they’re still winning and Chiefs bets can too if those making them grow accustomed to this much lower-scoring offense compared to what we’ve seen for most of Mahomes’ career.
Bills betting news: Buffalo hot on heels of 14-point win, but injuries mounting
There were a few times last week during their home wild Card game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers that covering the -10 point spread seemed in jeopardy, but the Bills pulled it off winning by two scores, 31-17.
Their 8-9-1 ATS record (playoffs included) is just about as even as you can get, but there are a few things to focus on when preparing to win bets on the AFC Divisional Round game. Josh Allen was equally efficient and dominant, going 21-of-30 for 203 yards and three scores. As per usual, Allen was also a game changer with his legs. His eight carries for 74 rushing yards featured a 52-yard TD run, which Bills fans viewed as a play indicative of MVP-tier status.
Others viewed that play as a fake-slide that could result in dangerous outcomes in future similar situations, but for now Bills bettors have to be encouraged by their QB’s monster four-TD wild card showing.
The Bills also made a bit of history by notching passing touchdowns to two different TEs in one period during their tone-setting first quarter, one to Dalton Kincaid and one to Dawson Knox.
The concerning side of betting the Bills lies in their mounting injury issues. They were already without Gabe Davis, Tyrel Dodson and Rasul Douglas going into last week, and things aren’t any better this week with Taron Johnson, Baylon Spector, Terrel Bernard and Christian Benford joining the injury report. Punter Sam Martin also injured his hamstring during a blocked field goal, leading Buffalo to sign their ex-punter Matt Haack to the practice squad. Buffalo’s punter health/availability is a betting trend to keep your eyes on for sure.
Chiefs vs. Bills props
Here is a sampling of Chiefs vs. Bills props for bettors to consider:
Chiefs vs. Bills player props
Some analysis as sportsbooks post player props for this contest:
Rashee Rice OVER receptions: Color us surprised if the Chiefs don’t reward Rashee Rice after his stellar playoff debut last week vs. the Dolphins. There’s not much to overthink on with this prop — it’s just a wideout who has continually improved all year, nabbing eight catches the week before and being well set up to do so again this week.
Harrison Butker OVER field goals: This matchup is probably going to be close, and it stands to reason that kickers will play a large role in determining who advances. Take this prop bet for Butker to come up big for Kansas City come S8nday.
Chiefs vs. Bills ATS prediction
This is a tough pick because it seems likely that this game won’t be a blowout. However, when it comes down to it we'll levy the prediction in favor of the QB with the hotter hand. Despite Mahomes being elite, this Sunday he won’t enjoy home cooking like he has in every other playoff game. Look for the Bills to cover, but probably not by a landslide.
Pick: Bills