It won’t be until late Sunday night that we know which team will represent the NFC in Super Bowl 58, but we can certainly spend the time between now and then honing our sights on finding the right NFC Championship Game props to target, specifically for the ball carriers.
The 49ers are favored by at home for this tilt. The O/U is at , and it’s up to us to determine how all those points are going to end up on the scoreboard.
Roger Craig and Tom Rathman used to spearhead the 49ers rushing attack in one of the team’s now bygone eras of high success. During that period of time the Lions relied chiefly upon legendary RB Barry Sanders to carry theirs.
Decades later, the RB setup for the Lions and 49ers has flip-flopped. Christian McCaffrey has been balling out weekly for San Francisco, and Detroit’s backfield seemingly gets more dangerous and effective each week due to the ascension of rookie Jahmyr Gibbs and his increasing prominence along side David Montgomery. Let’s dive into what NFC Championship running back prop bets we should consider.
Running back prop bets for Lions vs. 49ers NFC Championship game
Check out NFL prop odds on longest rush for Lions vs. 49ers:
More: Best NFL betting sites | Latest NFL betting odds
RB scorer props & odds: Christian McCaffrey, Jahmyr Gibbs in for big days
It makes sense to drill down to a granular level, i.e. playoff stats when analyzing the rushing attacks that the Lions and 49ers bring to the table for this game. They’re extremely similar. Top seed San Francisco notched 111 yards in their narrow victory over the Packers last week. The Lions have notched 193 yards total in the two games they’ve played in the postseason, home wins over the Rams and Buccaneers.
Both offenses are thriving, and with head coaches Dan Campbell and Kyle Shanahan’s propensity for going for it on fourth down and showing supreme confidence in their offenses, it seems likely that we’re going to see a lot of points scored.
We’re looking at a very pleasant forecast for this Sunday’s game, with no rain on the horizon and temperatures in the high 50s. That takes the whole “weather factoring into teams’ game plans” factor off the table, and simplifies our strategy for placing winning prop bets for the NFC Championship Game on Sunday. Let’s focus on who to target, and how to make the most of our last round of wagers before Super Bowl Sunday is suddenly upon us.
Lions vs. 49ers rushing props odds for NFC Championship Game: CMC, Gibbs and lesser-known Lions
Christian McCaffrey UNDER carries
CMC will clearly be a big part of the 49ers' offensive game plan, especially if dual-threat WR Deebo Samual is out with injury or limited. But this number opened at 19.5, and even at plus-money it's simply a huge figure to hit. McCaffrey hasn't had 20 or more carries since before Thanksgiving. In the regular season, the Detroit Lions defense allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game (87.7) and the second-most passing yards (256.9).
Jaymyr Gibbs longest rush OVER
Studious NFL fans have noticed time and time again: A rookie RB with tremendous combine stats and college game film hits the scene and starts either being featured less than you thought, performing less than you thought, or both. Such is the case with Gibbs, who had a fluctuating target share in the rushing game initially. He looks like he’s got his feet under him, and that must be the impression Dan Campbell is getting too since Gibbs has been featured more and more down the stretch. Look for Gibbs to break one if not multiple runs longer than the posted prop for longest rush.
Jameson Williams OVER rushing + receiving yards
Much like Gibbs, Jameson Williams has earned more chances as the season progressed. This is a low total that Williams could eclipse solely through receiving efforts, but a reverse or two could allow Williams to easily surpass this total.
Jared Goff OVER rushing yards
All Jared Goff needs to do for you to hit this is rush for one single yard. There isn’t too much stat parsing or trend recognition that has to go into making a rushing prop bet for Goff to gain three feet of yardage during this game. San Francisco's talented defensive line should pressure Goff from the pocket, and with the season on the line the veteran QB will be up for making something happen with his legs should the opportunity arise.
David Montgomery OVER yards
David Montgomery has hit the over on this total in eight of his last 10 games, and it doesn’t seem like his role in the Lions offense is going to be suddenly reduced on the cusp of the Super Bowl. The Lions would love to keep the clock moving via the ground game, and Montgomery stands to benefit even if he's not much of a big-play threat.