When people think about the 4th of July, they think about a number of things: cookouts, fireworks, lawn games, Major League Baseball, and the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest (Thursday at 11 a.m. ET, ESPN). And with perennial favorite Joey Chestnut banned from this year's event, fans of the wildly popular spectacle are asking the same question: Who will win?
The annual eating competition, an official 4th of July tradition since the 1970s, has been a Coney Island staple for over 100 years. The world champions of wiener-wolfing have been crowned exclusively at Nathan’s iconic original restaurant, except in 2020 and '21 when the event took place in alternate sites due to COVID.
MORE: Joey Chestnut ban, explained | Chestnut vs. Kobayashi on Netflix
Just like the past two years, the 2024 contest will be right where it should be on the Fourth: on the corner of Surf and Stillwell Avenues in Brooklyn’s iconic Coney Island neighborhood. And just like the past four years, the Sporting News betting team is back to bet on this wildly popular event that screams "'Merica!" as we reach for antacids with sympathy heartburn.
Let's go over the odds, best bets, and top props for the men's and women's sides, then briefly discuss Chestnut's ban and go over the background of Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest from a betting standpoint. Good luck, have fun, and Happy Independence Day!
Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest 2024: Men's outright odds
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
| Competitor | Odds |
| Geoffrey Esper | -120 |
| James Webb | +200 |
| Nick Wehry | +550 |
| Patrick Bertoletti | +800 |
| Field | +2500 |
| Gideon Oji | +4000 |
| Derek Hendrickson | +7500 |
| Darrien Thomas | +7500 |
| Max Stanford | +7500 |
| George Chiger | +7500 |
Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest 2024: Women's outright odds
| Competitor | Odds |
| Miki Sudo | -1200 |
| Mayoi Ebihara | +700 |
| Michelle Lesco | +2000 |
| Field | +5000 |
| Katie Prettyman | +7500 |
| Larell Marie Mele | +10000 |
Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest 2024: Favorites
With Chestnut out on the men's side due to a Nathan's ban, Geoffrey Esper (-120) becomes the odds-on favorite. Esper's personal best of 51 dogs leads the current field, and he has come in second to Chestnut in each of the past three years. He wolfed down 49 dogs last year, but hasn't reached 50 since 2021.
On the women's side, it's hard to argue with DraftKings listing Miki Sudo (-1200) so short. We called her the Serena Williams of competitive eating last year, and she proceeded to take down her record ninth title. She won the contest every year from 2014 to 2020, had a baby in 2021, and came back to win each of the past two events. She has finished first every time she has entered. Her total dogs consumed the past three events: 48.5 in '20, 40 in '22, 39.5 in '23.
Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest 2024: Best bets
James Webb to win (+200)
With apologies to Esper, we see more value in Webb at 2-to-1 odds. For starters, he's 14 years younger than Esper. But the Australian doesn't just have youth on his side — he has momentum. Esper has been setting the competitive eating world on fire this year, rocking records left and right.
Take a look at all these records Webb has made in just this calendar year:
- 70 glazed donuts (8 minutes) — Salvation Army National Donut Day — 6/7/2024
- 350 Jack's Donut Holes (8 mins.) — Jack's Donut Holes — 5/24/24
- 51 Texas Sausages (10 mins.) — Southside Market & Barbecue TX Sausages — 5/4/2024
- 13.5 pounds of chocolate fudge (8 mins.) — 3/30/2024
- 224 chicken wings (10 mins.) — 3/9/2024
- 338 pistachios (8 mins.) — 2/26/2024
That sure seems like the resume of a soon-to-be Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest champion. If he can take down 51 Texas Sausages, he can take down 50 hot dogs. It may feel like sacrilege to bet an Aussie to win such an American tradition, but we must embrace that all sports these days are international!
Miki Sudo to win (-1200)
Let's face it: Sudo at -1200 actually yields value. She opened at -1600, but bettors have clearly been putting money on perennial contenders like Mayoi Ebihara and Michelle Lesco because Sudo has lengthened by +400.
Betting against Sudo is like betting against prime Michael Jordan, Tiger Woods, or Michael Phelps. We're not suggesting you put down $1,200 for the chance to win $100 — we're just saying you absolutely cannot bet against the women's record-holder who has gone 9-for-9 in Nathan's contests.
Geoffrey Esper to eat less than 49.5 hot dogs (+100)
Esper celebrated his 49th birthday on May 28, and the Massachusetts native hopes to celebrate his first Nathan's championship on July 4. However, it's hard to trust him to finish with over 49 dogs considering he has consistently dipped in each of the past few years.
Esper took down 50 in 2021, 47 in 2022, and 49 in 2023. And while some might think he will crack 50 again knowing he has his best opportunity yet to win it all, it's also quite possible he starts with too fervent a pace knowing the younger Webb will be hot on his trail. Take the plus odds and bet Esper to finish below 49.5 for the third year in a row.
Miki Sudo and Nick Wehry to eat less than 85.5 hot dogs (+100)
The Sporting News' betting team has hit the UNDER on Sudo in each of the past two years, and this year we're betting her and her competitive-eating husband Wehry to combine for fewer than 85.5 dogs. It's not that we don't like romance — it's just that we love winning. And this number is way too high.
Sudo last eclipsed 40 dogs in 2020, prior to her and Wehry welcoming their first child to the world. Since then, she has won fairly comfortably with wiener totals of 39.5 in '23 and 40 in '22. She's about to turn 39 years old — as a 39-year-old, I can't imagine trying to eat 50 dogs if 39 would easily seal a victory.
As for Wehry, his totals the past three years have been 45 in '23, 40.5 in '22, and 44 in '21. Quick math tells us their combined results were 84.5 last year and 80.5 two years ago. These two are in their mid to late 30s and have a toddler son — they are not about to combine for a personal best on an 80-degrees day in 2024.
Where is Joey Chestnut? Nathan's hot dog contest ban, explained
Record-holder Joey Chestnut's dominant reign at the Nathan's contest has come to an end — at least for this year — due to his recent sponsorship from Impossible Foods and their vegan dog.
Thus, the competition will finally see a new champion for the first time in years. A 16-time champ, Chestnut won the contest every year from 2007 to '14 and from '16 to '23.
MORE: What is Impossible Foods? Meet Joey Chestnut's new sponsor
The inception of hot-dog eating contest sports betting
DraftKings became the first sportsbook to partner with the competition in 2020, ultimately offering odds for the men’s and women’s champion, odds for the field, and over/under props on total hot dogs consumed by each winner. Since then, most of the major books have followed suit, as more and more people recognize the eating contest as a sport.
“[Nathan’s Coney Island Hot Dog Eating Competition broadcaster] ESPN had already affirmed us as a sport in the early 2000s,” said Major League Eating president Rich Shea after New Jersey, New Hampshire, and Colorado officially approved wagering on the event in 2022. “With legal betting, we are really now as legitimate as the NFL and the NBA.”